There’s a lot of conversation right now about where the market is headed as we move into spring, and in this episode we unpack the key factors shaping real estate in Ottawa at the moment.
We look at how global and political conditions, including ongoing conflict in the Middle East, inflationary pressure, and Canada’s current majority government are influencing overall economic confidence. We also dive into interest rates, including recent movement in the five-year fixed, and what that means for buyers and sellers trying to plan their next move.
Another key topic is the recent HST change on new build homes under $1 million, and how that’s already impacting new construction activity across the city. With that surge in new build demand, we also explore the natural follow-up question: could this shift eventually affect resale inventory and pricing?
As always, we bring it back to what we’re actually seeing on the ground in Ottawa right now — increasing activity, more conversations with clients, and a market that’s starting to gain momentum as we move deeper into spring.
If you want a clearer picture of where things are heading and how all of these factors connect, this episode lays it out in a straightforward, practical way.
Here’s the latest update in our Suburban Statistics Series, highlighting insights from the five largest urban neighborhoods in Ottawa. Given the city’s expansive layout, it’s always interesting to see how market trends differ across each area. These statistics compare MLS OREB sales from January 1 to April 1, 2026, with the same period in 2025.
New Row House Construction with wood sheathing and asphalt roof
There’s been a big announcement this week from the Province of Ontario, and it’s one that could have a meaningful impact on buyers—especially those considering new construction.
In partnership with the federal government, Ontario is expanding the HST rebate on new homes for a limited time, with the goal of improving affordability and encouraging more housing development.
More specifically, the province is planning to temporarily remove the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) on new homes for qualifying buyers. The full 13% tax would be eliminated on homes valued up to $1 million from April 1, 2026 to March 31, 2027.
For homes priced between $1 million and $1.5 million, buyers would still qualify for the maximum rebate of up to $130,000, with the rebate gradually decreasing for higher-priced homes—down to approximately $24,000 for homes valued at $1.85 million.
Let’s break down what this actually means.
What changed? Under this new program, the province is temporarily expanding the rebate structure so that significantly more buyers—and a wider range of home prices—can benefit over a one-year period.
Why this matters From a real estate perspective, this is a pretty strategic move.
New construction has been one of the biggest pressure points in Ontario’s housing supply. Between rising construction costs, interest rates, and slower buyer activity, many builders have pulled back or delayed projects.
This rebate is designed to do two things:
Stimulate demand by lowering the effective purchase price for buyers
Encourage builders to move forward with projects
And in a market like Ottawa—where we rely heavily on a steady pipeline of new housing—this could help bring more inventory online.
What it means for buyers If you’re considering a new build, this is where things get interesting.
A rebate of this size can:
Reduce your upfront cost significantly
Improve affordability on higher price points
Potentially allow buyers to stretch into a better product or location
That said, timing will matter. This is a temporary program, and we’ll likely see increased competition in the new construction space as buyers start to take advantage of it.
The bigger picture This announcement is really about one thing: supply.
Governments at both levels are trying to unlock more housing by making projects more viable and encouraging buyers back into the market.
Will it solve everything? No. But it’s a meaningful step—and one that could create opportunities for buyers who understand how to position themselves.
Final thoughts If you’re thinking about buying a new build this year, this is worth paying close attention to.
There may be a window here where:
Pricing is still relatively stable
Incentives are strong
Inventory is improving
And those three things don’t always line up.
As always, the key is understanding how this fits into your overall plan—whether that’s buying your next home, relocating, or investing.
If you want to walk through how this impacts your specific situation, happy to chat.
Every year people ask the same question around this time: what will the spring market look like? The reality is that Ottawa tends to follow a very predictable rhythm. Once the sun starts coming out and the snow begins to disappear, activity picks up quickly. We are starting to see exactly that happen now.
Over the past few weeks we’ve had a noticeable increase in inquiries from both buyers and sellers trying to plan their next move. Many homeowners who were sitting on the sidelines during the winter are getting ready to list, which means buyers should see a healthy amount of inventory this spring.
Colin mentioned on the podcast that the shift has been noticeable even compared to a month ago. Homes that were sitting for a while over the winter are beginning to move, showings are increasing, and buyers are starting to re-engage with the market. Ottawa often waits for a little sunshine before things really get going, and that moment seems to be arriving.
One topic that has been coming up a lot lately is the use of first refusal conditions in offers.
A first refusal clause allows a buyer to purchase a home conditionally while still needing to sell their own property. The home they are buying remains on the market, and if another buyer submits an acceptable offer, the original buyer is given a set period of time (often 24–48 hours) to remove their condition and proceed with the purchase. If they cannot, the seller is free to accept the new offer.
In a market where many homeowners need to sell before they buy, this clause can be a useful tool. It gives buyers an opportunity to secure a home while still protecting themselves if their current property hasn’t sold yet. At the same time, it allows sellers to keep marketing the property and maintain leverage if another offer comes in.
The bigger question many clients are asking right now is whether it’s better to buy first or sell first. There isn’t a one-size-fits-all answer. It depends on inventory, price point, and how comfortable someone is carrying risk during the transition. In the episode we walk through what we are currently seeing in the market and how our clients are approaching that decision.
With inventory expected to grow and activity starting to build, this spring should provide good opportunities for both buyers and sellers who are prepared.
If you’re curious about where the market is heading or how strategies like first refusal clauses work in real situations, make sure to check out the full podcast episode where we break it all down.
Here’s the latest update in our Suburban Statistics Series, featuring insights on the five largest urban neighborhoods in Ottawa. With Ottawa’s spread-out layout, it’s always fascinating to see how each area’s market trends vary. These stats compare MLS OREB sales from January 1 to February 28, 2026, with the same period in 2025.
We recently had Mike Pyman on the podcast—someone who has been involved in over $2 billion in commercial real estate—and the conversation gave a really interesting look at how large-scale investors view Ottawa.
It’s a perspective we don’t always hear on the residential side.
One of the biggest themes was stability.
When institutional investors look at Ottawa, the presence of the federal government plays a major role. It creates a level of consistency that you don’t see in many other cities. While places like Toronto, Calgary, or Vancouver can experience sharper ups and downs tied to specific industries, Ottawa tends to move in a more measured way.
There are still cycles—but they’re typically less dramatic.
Another interesting point was how much behaviour matters in real estate. Investors often move in waves. Capital pulls back when there’s uncertainty, and then gradually returns once opportunities start to appear. It’s not unlike the stock market, but with a longer-term lens.
Right now, Ottawa is being seen as slightly more uncertain than usual, largely due to post-COVID shifts—especially in the downtown core. But at the same time, that uncertainty is also what’s creating opportunity. As some investors step back, others are starting to look more closely because potential returns have improved.
From an institutional perspective, one of the most sought-after assets today is simple: grocery-anchored real estate. It’s steady, essential, and performs consistently regardless of market conditions.
It’s a good reminder that while headlines often focus on short-term changes, most serious investors are thinking years ahead.
We also got into Mike’s process of building a custom home in Westboro, and how his approach to real estate carries through at every level—from large commercial deals to personal decisions.
If you’re curious how investors at that level think about markets, timing, and long-term strategy, it’s a great conversation.
Watch the video or listen to the full podcast to hear it all.
There are a lot of great Realtors in Ottawa. But when it comes to selling your home, not all results are the same. And the difference isn’t just experience or marketing — it shows up in how fast your home sells, and how much you walk away with. The Data Tells the Story. One of the challenges in real estate is that it’s hard to compare agents objectively. That’s why third-party data matters. According to an independent report based on actual transactions, our team’s listings:
Homes sold 46% faster than the market average
Sold for 1.3% more on average
Resulted in $8,225 more per home sold
Also ranking in the top ~1–2% of agents in Ottawa by both transactions and sales volume, and in the top 1% of Royal Lepage agents nationwide.
Why Does This Matter?
On a $800,000 home, that difference can mean $10,000–$15,000 more in your pocket. It can also mean less time on the market, fewer showings, and a more controlled, less stressful process.
The Bottom Line
When you hire a Realtor, you’re not just hiring someone to list your home. You’re hiring someone to guide your strategy, manage the process, and negotiate your result. And in a market like Ottawa — who you work with matters.
On this episode of The Chris Scott Show, Colin and I talked about something that really matters right now for anyone thinking about selling: how to actually stand out in a market with more inventory and more choice than we’ve seen in a while.
The reality is simple. There are a lot of listings out there. Buyers have options. And that means sellers need an edge.
For us, it starts with being real. We spend a lot of time having honest conversations with sellers about pricing, timing, and expectations. That’s not always the easiest approach, and it doesn’t always win us the listing, but it’s the right one. Telling someone what they want to hear might feel good in the moment, but it doesn’t help them sell their home. Price is driven by what buyers are willing to pay, not by headlines or hype, and there’s a lot of data behind how we land on our numbers.
Once pricing is right, preparation becomes everything. Deferred maintenance matters more than ever. Small things add up. Paint touch-ups, minor repairs, misaligned cabinet doors, anything that gives buyers a reason to mentally start building a repair list should be addressed upfront. Buyers will always make a list, but in today’s market, they can use that list to negotiate harder.
One strategy we’re seeing work well is getting a home inspection done before listing, especially in older neighbourhoods. Issues that might cost a seller $1,000 or $2,000 to fix ahead of time can easily turn into a $5,000 price reduction once a buyer’s inspection happens. Handling those items in advance gives sellers more control and fewer surprises.
We’ve also seen firsthand what happens when preparation is ignored. Homes that sit for months, come off the market, get staged and painted, then go back on at the same price and sell. Price wasn’t the issue. Presentation was. Doing it right the first time saves months of stress, showings, and second-guessing.
First impressions are everything. Buyers are seeing so many homes that it doesn’t take long for them to decide whether something feels right or not. It could be the layout, a smell, a visual distraction, or just a general lack of polish. You might not know in nine seconds that it’s “the one,” but you can definitely know in nine seconds that it isn’t.
From our side, more inventory means we have to up our game too. Better marketing, better content, better storytelling. Video is no longer optional. Buyers are going to watch it at some point, whether it’s before a showing, after, or when they’re sharing the home with family. That’s our chance to highlight features they might have missed and help them connect emotionally with the home.
We meet buyers where they are. Full property videos, Instagram-specific content, VR tours, whatever format they prefer. Different styles, same goal: helping buyers see themselves living there.
At the end of the day, selling a home is emotional. Buyers don’t just buy square footage, they buy how a place makes them feel. When pricing, preparation, and marketing all line up, that’s when sellers truly get the edge.
If you have questions about selling in today’s market or want to talk through what this could look like for your home, reach out anytime. And if you’re enjoying the podcast, let us know what you think of the format and the conversations we’re having.
Here’s the latest update in our Suburban Statistics Series, featuring insights on the five largest urban neighborhoods in Ottawa. With Ottawa’s spread-out layout, it’s always fascinating to see how each area’s market trends vary. These stats compare MLS OREB sales from January 1 to January 31, 2026, with the same period in 2025.
This year was shaped by a mix of political, economic, and local factors that influenced confidence in the Stittsville real estate market. A federal election in late April created some uncertainty heading into the spring. At the same time, renewed trade and tariff discussions tied to Trump’s return to the U.S. political spotlight added broader economic unease. Despite these headwinds, Stittsville remains one of Ottawa’s most desirable communities. Strong schools, amenities, and overall quality of life continue to support demand, particularly among out-of-town and military buyers relocating to the area.
Interest Rates
Interest rates will not be the savior in 2026. The Bank of Canada is likely to keep rates close to current levels, offering stability but not a major boost to economic activity. I anticipate a small easing of rates over time. At roughly 2.25%, we’re effectively at a neutral level. If inflation trends lower, that could open the door to additional cuts that may help stimulate things!
Public Service Job Cuts
For Ottawa, this remains the single most important factor influencing the local economy and buyer confidence. When job security feels uncertain, major financial decisions — including home purchases — tend to pause, and even the perception of potential job losses can ripple through the housing market. While this uncertainty has created hesitation, the core fundamentals remain healthy. Outside of the condo segment, which continues to face inventory challenges, most areas of the market are balanced, predictable, and functioning well — creating a more stable environment than the headlines might suggest.
Keep an Eye Out for Our Military Letter!
Every year, we send out tens of thousands of letters to connect with homeowners who might be considering selling their property. These letters are a key part of our commitment to supporting military relocation. By working with us, sellers can explore the opportunity to match their home with one of the many military members moving into our area, ready to buy with our team. If you’re thinking about selling and want to get ahead of the curve, don’t wait—reach out to us today! You can check out our military website by clicking on the image below!
Check out our full breakdown of the Ottawa Real Estate Market below. You can also listen now on Spotify!
Canada’s Housing Market Update: What the Latest CREA Data Means for Ottawa Buyers and Sellers
The Canadian Real Estate Association’s January 2026 Housing Update gives us a helpful snapshot of where the housing market is heading both nationally and here in Ottawa. While headlines often lean toward uncertainty, the data itself tells a more balanced story. For buyers, sellers, and anyone planning a move this year, there’s a lot of useful context in this update if you know where to look
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Interest Rates: Stability, Not Sharp Relief
One of the biggest questions I hear right now is about interest rates — and whether meaningful relief is coming. According to CREA’s January 2026 Housing Update, the Bank of Canada believes the current policy rate is “about the right level” to keep inflation close to its 2% target while supporting the economy through this period of adjustment (Figure 1)
Figure 1: Bank of Canada signalling rate stability rather than aggressive cuts (CREA Housing Update, Jan 2026).
What this really tells us is that we shouldn’t expect sudden or dramatic rate drops. Any improvement in affordability is more likely to come gradually. For buyers, that means planning around today’s reality rather than waiting for a big shift. For sellers, it reinforces the importance of pricing properly in a market that’s steady, but far less forgiving of overpricing.
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Demand Isn’t Going Away
Even with affordability challenges, the desire to own a home hasn’t gone anywhere. CREA’s presentation highlights that 75% of non-homeowners aged 30–44 still plan to buy one day, and that number jumps to 86% among those aged 18–29 (Figure 2).
Figure 2: Long-term homeownership intentions by age group, sourced from Abacus Data and presented in CREA’s January 2026 Housing Update.
This lines up closely with what we’re seeing on the ground in Ottawa. Many buyers aren’t out of the market — they’re simply waiting. Timing, financing, and life stage all play a role. The key takeaway here is that underlying demand is still very much intact.
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The “Missing Middle” and Ottawa’s Supply Challenge
Another major theme in the CREA update is the ongoing shortage of “missing middle” housing — things like townhomes, duplexes, and smaller multi-unit properties. These are often the most practical options for first-time buyers, growing families, and downsizers. Unfortunately, they’re also in short supply, especially in Ottawa (Figure 3).
Figure 3: Housing stock by dwelling type highlighting the “missing middle” (CREA Housing Update, Jan 2026).
This supply gap helps explain why certain segments of Ottawa’s market remain competitive, even when overall sales activity slows. When demand consistently outweighs supply in these categories, prices tend to stay firm.
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Public Service Employment and Local Confidence
CREA also points to federal budget projections showing 16,000 job reductions over three years and 41,000 over five years, starting in 2024. Importantly, many of these reductions are happening quietly through retirements and attrition rather than sudden layoffs.
For Ottawa, that distinction matters. Gradual workforce changes typically have a much softer impact on housing demand than abrupt job losses. It’s one of the reasons our local market has remained relatively stable compared to other parts of the country.
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Ottawa’s Market: Resilient, But Selective
When you look specifically at Ottawa’s new residential construction and resale activity, the picture that emerges is a market that’s functioning well — just more selective. Homes that are well priced and in desirable neighbourhoods are still selling. Properties that miss the mark on price, condition, or presentation are taking longer.
This isn’t a market driven by panic or hype. It’s one that rewards preparation, good advice, and a clear understanding of local conditions.
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Final Thoughts
CREA’s January 2026 update reinforces what many Ottawa buyers and sellers are already feeling. Demand hasn’t disappeared. Interest rates are relatively stable. Supply challenges are still very real. And while uncertainty exists, Ottawa’s housing market continues to operate with balance and resilience.
As always, the most important piece is understanding how these broader trends apply to your situation. That’s where strategy, timing, and local insight really matter.
Sources
Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), Housing Update Presentation, January 16, 2026. Data and charts referenced from CREA presentation slides, including Bank of Canada policy commentary and Abacus Data on homeownership demand.
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