This year was shaped by a mix of political, economic, and local factors that influenced confidence in the Stittsville real estate market. A federal election in late April created some uncertainty heading into the spring. At the same time, renewed trade and tariff discussions tied to Trump’s return to the U.S. political spotlight added broader economic unease. Despite these headwinds, Stittsville remains one of Ottawa’s most desirable communities. Strong schools, amenities, and overall quality of life continue to support demand, particularly among out-of-town and military buyers relocating to the area.
Interest Rates
Interest rates will not be the savior in 2026. The Bank of Canada is likely to keep rates close to current levels, offering stability but not a major boost to economic activity. I anticipate a small easing of rates over time. At roughly 2.25%, we’re effectively at a neutral level. If inflation trends lower, that could open the door to additional cuts that may help stimulate things!
Public Service Job Cuts
For Ottawa, this remains the single most important factor influencing the local economy and buyer confidence. When job security feels uncertain, major financial decisions — including home purchases — tend to pause, and even the perception of potential job losses can ripple through the housing market. While this uncertainty has created hesitation, the core fundamentals remain healthy. Outside of the condo segment, which continues to face inventory challenges, most areas of the market are balanced, predictable, and functioning well — creating a more stable environment than the headlines might suggest.
Keep an Eye Out for Our Military Letter!
Every year, we send out tens of thousands of letters to connect with homeowners who might be considering selling their property. These letters are a key part of our commitment to supporting military relocation. By working with us, sellers can explore the opportunity to match their home with one of the many military members moving into our area, ready to buy with our team. If you’re thinking about selling and want to get ahead of the curve, don’t wait—reach out to us today! You can check out our military website by clicking on the image below!
Check out our full breakdown of the Ottawa Real Estate Market below. You can also listen now on Spotify!
Canada’s Housing Market Update: What the Latest CREA Data Means for Ottawa Buyers and Sellers
The Canadian Real Estate Association’s January 2026 Housing Update gives us a helpful snapshot of where the housing market is heading both nationally and here in Ottawa. While headlines often lean toward uncertainty, the data itself tells a more balanced story. For buyers, sellers, and anyone planning a move this year, there’s a lot of useful context in this update if you know where to look
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Interest Rates: Stability, Not Sharp Relief
One of the biggest questions I hear right now is about interest rates — and whether meaningful relief is coming. According to CREA’s January 2026 Housing Update, the Bank of Canada believes the current policy rate is “about the right level” to keep inflation close to its 2% target while supporting the economy through this period of adjustment (Figure 1)
Figure 1: Bank of Canada signalling rate stability rather than aggressive cuts (CREA Housing Update, Jan 2026).
What this really tells us is that we shouldn’t expect sudden or dramatic rate drops. Any improvement in affordability is more likely to come gradually. For buyers, that means planning around today’s reality rather than waiting for a big shift. For sellers, it reinforces the importance of pricing properly in a market that’s steady, but far less forgiving of overpricing.
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Demand Isn’t Going Away
Even with affordability challenges, the desire to own a home hasn’t gone anywhere. CREA’s presentation highlights that 75% of non-homeowners aged 30–44 still plan to buy one day, and that number jumps to 86% among those aged 18–29 (Figure 2).
Figure 2: Long-term homeownership intentions by age group, sourced from Abacus Data and presented in CREA’s January 2026 Housing Update.
This lines up closely with what we’re seeing on the ground in Ottawa. Many buyers aren’t out of the market — they’re simply waiting. Timing, financing, and life stage all play a role. The key takeaway here is that underlying demand is still very much intact.
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The “Missing Middle” and Ottawa’s Supply Challenge
Another major theme in the CREA update is the ongoing shortage of “missing middle” housing — things like townhomes, duplexes, and smaller multi-unit properties. These are often the most practical options for first-time buyers, growing families, and downsizers. Unfortunately, they’re also in short supply, especially in Ottawa (Figure 3).
Figure 3: Housing stock by dwelling type highlighting the “missing middle” (CREA Housing Update, Jan 2026).
This supply gap helps explain why certain segments of Ottawa’s market remain competitive, even when overall sales activity slows. When demand consistently outweighs supply in these categories, prices tend to stay firm.
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Public Service Employment and Local Confidence
CREA also points to federal budget projections showing 16,000 job reductions over three years and 41,000 over five years, starting in 2024. Importantly, many of these reductions are happening quietly through retirements and attrition rather than sudden layoffs.
For Ottawa, that distinction matters. Gradual workforce changes typically have a much softer impact on housing demand than abrupt job losses. It’s one of the reasons our local market has remained relatively stable compared to other parts of the country.
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Ottawa’s Market: Resilient, But Selective
When you look specifically at Ottawa’s new residential construction and resale activity, the picture that emerges is a market that’s functioning well — just more selective. Homes that are well priced and in desirable neighbourhoods are still selling. Properties that miss the mark on price, condition, or presentation are taking longer.
This isn’t a market driven by panic or hype. It’s one that rewards preparation, good advice, and a clear understanding of local conditions.
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Final Thoughts
CREA’s January 2026 update reinforces what many Ottawa buyers and sellers are already feeling. Demand hasn’t disappeared. Interest rates are relatively stable. Supply challenges are still very real. And while uncertainty exists, Ottawa’s housing market continues to operate with balance and resilience.
As always, the most important piece is understanding how these broader trends apply to your situation. That’s where strategy, timing, and local insight really matter.
Sources
Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), Housing Update Presentation, January 16, 2026. Data and charts referenced from CREA presentation slides, including Bank of Canada policy commentary and Abacus Data on homeownership demand.
Curious What Your Home is Worth? Contact us TODAY to get a free/no obligation home evaluation
The Canadian Real Estate Association’s January 2026 Housing Update gives us a helpful snapshot of where the housing market is heading both nationally and here in Ottawa. While headlines often lean toward uncertainty, the data itself tells a more balanced story. For buyers, sellers, and anyone planning a move this year, there’s a lot of useful context in this update if you know where to look
——————————————————————————————————————————-
Interest Rates: Stability, Not Sharp Relief
One of the biggest questions I hear right now is about interest rates — and whether meaningful relief is coming. According to CREA’s January 2026 Housing Update, the Bank of Canada believes the current policy rate is “about the right level” to keep inflation close to its 2% target while supporting the economy through this period of adjustment (Figure 1)
Figure 1: Bank of Canada signalling rate stability rather than aggressive cuts (CREA Housing Update, Jan 2026).
What this really tells us is that we shouldn’t expect sudden or dramatic rate drops. Any improvement in affordability is more likely to come gradually. For buyers, that means planning around today’s reality rather than waiting for a big shift. For sellers, it reinforces the importance of pricing properly in a market that’s steady, but far less forgiving of overpricing.
——————————————————————————————————————————-
Demand Isn’t Going Away
Even with affordability challenges, the desire to own a home hasn’t gone anywhere. CREA’s presentation highlights that 75% of non-homeowners aged 30–44 still plan to buy one day, and that number jumps to 86% among those aged 18–29 (Figure 2).
Figure 2: Long-term homeownership intentions by age group, sourced from Abacus Data and presented in CREA’s January 2026 Housing Update.
This lines up closely with what we’re seeing on the ground in Ottawa. Many buyers aren’t out of the market — they’re simply waiting. Timing, financing, and life stage all play a role. The key takeaway here is that underlying demand is still very much intact.
——————————————————————————————————————————-
The “Missing Middle” and Ottawa’s Supply Challenge
Another major theme in the CREA update is the ongoing shortage of “missing middle” housing — things like townhomes, duplexes, and smaller multi-unit properties. These are often the most practical options for first-time buyers, growing families, and downsizers. Unfortunately, they’re also in short supply, especially in Ottawa (Figure 3).
Figure 3: Housing stock by dwelling type highlighting the “missing middle” (CREA Housing Update, Jan 2026).
This supply gap helps explain why certain segments of Ottawa’s market remain competitive, even when overall sales activity slows. When demand consistently outweighs supply in these categories, prices tend to stay firm.
——————————————————————————————————————————-
Public Service Employment and Local Confidence
CREA also points to federal budget projections showing 16,000 job reductions over three years and 41,000 over five years, starting in 2024. Importantly, many of these reductions are happening quietly through retirements and attrition rather than sudden layoffs.
For Ottawa, that distinction matters. Gradual workforce changes typically have a much softer impact on housing demand than abrupt job losses. It’s one of the reasons our local market has remained relatively stable compared to other parts of the country.
——————————————————————————————————————————-
Ottawa’s Market: Resilient, But Selective
When you look specifically at Ottawa’s new residential construction and resale activity, the picture that emerges is a market that’s functioning well — just more selective. Homes that are well priced and in desirable neighbourhoods are still selling. Properties that miss the mark on price, condition, or presentation are taking longer.
This isn’t a market driven by panic or hype. It’s one that rewards preparation, good advice, and a clear understanding of local conditions.
——————————————————————————————————————————-
Final Thoughts
CREA’s January 2026 update reinforces what many Ottawa buyers and sellers are already feeling. Demand hasn’t disappeared. Interest rates are relatively stable. Supply challenges are still very real. And while uncertainty exists, Ottawa’s housing market continues to operate with balance and resilience.
As always, the most important piece is understanding how these broader trends apply to your situation. That’s where strategy, timing, and local insight really matter.
Sources
Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), Housing Update Presentation, January 16, 2026. Data and charts referenced from CREA presentation slides, including Bank of Canada policy commentary and Abacus Data on homeownership demand.
One of the main reasons I wanted to start The Chris Scott Show was simple: I always felt like I had more to say. Our monthly market videos are great, but Ottawa real estate isn’t something you can properly explain in 60 seconds. There’s context, nuance, and a lot happening under the surface.
For the first episode, I sat down with Colin Raines, my longtime partner. We talked through what we’ve been seeing day to day with buyers and sellers and how the past year has really set the stage for what’s ahead.
Looking back on 2025, it wasn’t a bad year, but it was definitely an uncertain one. Between political shifts, trade talk, and a late winter, a lot of people hesitated early on. If you didn’t have to move, many people chose to wait. That said, Ottawa once again showed how resilient it is. Being a government and military town matters. People still needed to buy and sell for renewals, relocations, and life changes.
Even in a year that felt slower, our team had our best year ever. After 20 years in this business, that’s something I’m really proud of. It’s a good reminder that while headlines can sound alarming, the fundamentals of the Ottawa real estate market remain solid.
One of the biggest topics we discussed was mortgage renewals. A large number of homeowners bought in 2021 when prices surged and rates were incredibly low. Now those mortgages are coming up for renewal, and in some cases payments will be significantly higher. That doesn’t mean a crash is coming, but it does mean some households will feel pressure, and a portion may decide—or need—to sell.
Looking ahead to 2026, the biggest local factor is public service employment. Even the possibility of job cuts can slow buyer confidence. When people feel uncertain about their jobs, they tend to pause major decisions. Interest rates will matter too, but likely in a more modest way. Small cuts could help affordability, but they won’t fundamentally change the market on their own.
Inventory is where things really diverge. Single-family homes are sitting in a fairly balanced range. Townhomes are surprisingly tight. Condos remain the toughest segment, with higher inventory and more competition. This is why the market can feel very different depending on what type of home you’re buying or selling.
For buyers, this is a far more reasonable market than a few years ago. There’s more choice, less pressure, and more room to be strategic. Good homes are still selling—sometimes with multiple offers—but buyers no longer need to overreach to compete.
For sellers, preparation matters more than ever. Pricing correctly, presenting the home well, and creating a bit of a wow factor can make all the difference. Homes that stand out are moving; homes that don’t can sit longer. Patience is part of the process right now.
What stood out most from last year were the client wins—helping military families relocate smoothly, negotiating strong value for buyers, and taking listings that hadn’t sold before and getting them across the finish line. Those messages months later saying, “We’re so happy here,” are what make this work worthwhile.
If you listened to the episode, I’d love to hear your thoughts. Let us know what you think of this interview-style conversation about the current Ottawa real estate market, and whether this kind of deeper discussion is something you’d like to hear more of.
Here’s the latest update in our Suburban Statistics Series, featuring insights on the five largest urban neighborhoods in Ottawa. With Ottawa’s spread-out layout, it’s always fascinating to see how each area’s market trends vary. These stats compare MLS OREB sales from January 1 to December 31, 2025, with the same period in 2024.
Selling a home is never a small task, and doing it while deployed overseas adds an entirely different layer. We recently helped one of our military clients sell her condo on Pinhey Street while she was serving abroad, and it’s a great example of how the right systems, preparation, and experience can make distance a non-issue.
From the start, communication was key. With time zone differences and a busy deployment schedule, we handled everything through WhatsApp, keeping things simple and efficient. Offers, updates, questions, and documents were all managed in real time, allowing our client to stay fully in the loop without added stress. The entire process felt easy and seamless, even though she was thousands of miles away.
Although the condo was vacant while she was away, we brought in professional staging to present it at its best and help buyers visualize the lifestyle it offers. We also used professional photography to highlight the layout, natural light, and finishes, allowing the listing to truly stand out among other condos on the market.
While prioritizing both marketing and communication, we worked closely with Brookfield Relocations to ensure timelines, details, and expectations were aligned throughout the transaction. Through proactive coordination and strong relationships behind the scenes, we were able to prevent surprises and keep the process running smoothly.
Working with clients overseas is something our team does regularly. As a military real estate specialist, we understand deployments, relocations, tight schedules, and the need for clear, direct communication. Our job is to take as much off our clients’ plates as possible so they can focus on their service, knowing their condo sale is being handled properly.
The successful sale of the Pinhey Street condo is a great reminder that with the right team — and the right presentation — selling from anywhere in the world is absolutely possible. As a Top Ottawa Realtor, we’re proud to support those who serve and make the process as smooth and stress-free as it should be, no matter where duty calls.
The shift has been slow and steady, but November really highlighted where things are heading. Ottawa is still technically sitting in a balanced market, yet different segments are starting to move in very different directions — and some are shifting quickly.
Condo apartments, for example, have climbed to seven months of inventory, a notable jump that firmly places that segment in buyer’s-market territory. (For context, months of inventory measures how long it would take for all current listings to sell if no new ones came on the market.) Seven months means buyers have leverage and plenty of choice.
By contrast, single-family homes are holding steady at roughly four months of inventory, and townhomes are even tighter at around three months — both still within balanced-market conditions. But as always, Ottawa is really a collection of micro-stories. For example, if you’re buying or selling in Westboro, The Glebe, or downtown under $1M, you’re seeing something completely different from the citywide averages. Inventory in these pockets is incredibly tight, competition is high, and well-priced homes are moving fast. So even though the overall market reads “balanced,” your lived experience may feel far more competitive.
Layered on top of all this is the Bank of Canada’s latest decision to hold interest rates steady. This means we’re heading into the new year with what I’d call a neutral rate environment — rates aren’t pushing the market forward, but they’re not pulling it back either. A rate cut would certainly help unlock more momentum (and yes, selfishly, I’d love to see that), especially as inventory builds in certain segments.
If you’re curious about what’s happening in your specific neighbourhood or want a breakdown of recent sales around your home, feel free to reach out anytime. Every pocket of the city is behaving differently right now, and we’re always happy to walk you through it.
We’ll also be sharing a more detailed 2026 market forecast in the next blog post. There’s a lot to unpack, and I’m looking forward to diving deeper with you!
This year marked a milestone for our team: the 10th anniversary of our annual Santa Party. What started as a simple idea — inviting a few clients into our office lobby for photos with Santa — has grown into one of our favourite traditions and a meaningful way to celebrate the people who have supported our business over the years.
The early days were small & casual. A tree in the corner, a plate of cookies, and Santa posing in our office lobby. But even then, the energy was special. Families showed up, kids beamed, and we realized how much joy a little holiday gathering could bring. It didn’t take long for us to make it a yearly event.
Fast forward a decade, and the Santa Party has become something much bigger — and this year was our biggest celebration yet. To mark the 10-year milestone, we hosted the event at The Marshes Golf Course, giving us the perfect space to bring everything to life. Over 200 clients attended, making it our highest turnout ever. The room was full from start to finish with families catching up, kids running around excited for their turn with Santa, and that buzz of holiday excitement you can’t really describe unless you’re in it.
We brought back the staples that everyone loves: Santa’s mailbox for letters, our balloon artist who is always a hit, adding in a second facepainter to help with the lineup and of course the professional photographer ready to capture everyone’s moment with Santa that has become an annual tradition for so many families. It’s amazing to see kids who once toddled now walking in a little taller, year after year.
For us, this event is more than a party. It’s a way to say thank you. Our clients have supported us, trusted us, referred us, and grown with us — and hosting a celebration like this is our opportunity to give something back. We take a lot of pride in going all out, and this year we pushed it even further because the milestone deserved it.
And a big part of what makes this tradition feel so meaningful is the people who have been with us since the very beginning. Santa, our photographer Don, and our face painter have all been part of this event since year one. They’ve seen the kids grow up, they’ve helped create the magic, and they’ve become woven into the fabric of what this event is. Their commitment and enthusiasm every single year make the Santa Party feel familiar, warm, and truly special — and we couldn’t imagine it without them.
Looking around the room, it was impossible not to feel grateful. Ten years of Santa Parties. Ten years of families returning. Ten years of building a community that extends far beyond real estate.
This year set the bar high, and we’re already excited about what the next one will bring. But for now, we’re just thankful — for the turnout, the memories, and the chance to celebrate with so many of you.
There’s some real opportunity out there right now in the Ottawa real estate market. We’re seeing sellers making big price adjustments, and that’s creating some great buys — even a few that could make sense for investors or anyone looking to renovate and resell. It’s been years since we’ve seen that kind of window open in Ottawa, and it’s refreshing to see balance returning.
The recent interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada — down another quarter of a percent — has given the market a boost of optimism. It wasn’t guaranteed (most thought it was a coin toss), but it happened, and it’s good news. Variable mortgage holders are already seeing the benefit, and for anyone renewing in 2025, it may open up more flexible options between fixed and variable rates.
When you look at the bigger picture, we’ve had 1.75% in rate cuts since June 2024. That’s a major shift that helps with affordability and confidence. The next Bank of Canada announcement is coming up on December 10th, and all signs are pointing toward continued easing.
That said, the market is behaving differently depending on where you are. In Ottawa’s outer areas — places like Carleton Place, Embrun, and the surrounding small towns — listings are sitting a little longer. There’s just more inventory out there right now, so even homes that are priced well and staged beautifully are taking more time to sell. The condo market’s seeing a similar trend: you can have the perfect unit in the right neighbourhood at a great price, and it might still take a while to find the right buyer.
Overall though, this shift is healthy. Buyers have more breathing room, sellers are pricing more realistically, and we’re moving toward a more balanced Ottawa real estate market — something we haven’t had in a long time.
If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or just want to understand what’s happening in your neighbourhood, our team’s always happy to chat.
It’s incredibly disappointing to see Clublink move forward with closing the Kanata Golf & Country Club in favour of development. For decades, this course has been a defining part of the Kanata Lakes community — not just a patch of green space, but a promise. A promise that helped shape home values, neighbourhood identity, and the very reason many families chose to live there in the first place.
It is also close to home as my boys enjoyed playing there this year with their Grandpa. It was some of our most memorable moments from the past summer.
What breaks my heart most is thinking about the homeowners who bought with the understanding — and yes, expectation — that they would have golf course views for the lifetime of their homes. Many paid large premiums. Many built their lives around that open space, that privacy, that sense of calm. To have that taken away is more than frustrating — it feels like a betrayal.
What’s even harder to wrap my head around is how a development with essentially zero public support — not from the local councillor, not from the MP, and certainly not from the mayor — could still push ahead and get approved. The community has been loud, organized, and united. Petitions, town halls, planning meetings — the message has been consistent: we don’t want this. Yet somehow, the desires of the residents who actually live here and elsewhere in Ottawa were outweighed.
It’s astounding, and frankly, unacceptable.
Clublink had an opportunity to stand by the community that supported them for decades. Instead, they chose to sell out. I understand business decisions, but there is a difference between business and values. This decision lacks the latter.
I truly hope that builders across Ottawa recognize the weight of this. Land comes with history — and reputation. I would be proud to see some of the city’s more respected builders take a stand and decline involvement in developing here. Not because they can’t build well, but because we need a message that communities matter. Commitments matter. Neighbourhood identity matters.
Will a boycott happen? Probably not. But it would be powerful to see people hit pause and ask: At what cost? What kind of city do we want to be? One that honours long-standing neighbourhood character and resident trust — or one that allows corporate interests to override community voice?
Our team helps with many HHTs each year, and each one is a little different from the rest. In one case this year, Colin and Chris first spoke with the relocating members in March after they were referred by a past relocation client. At that stage they were not familiar with Ottawa Relocations and were still interviewing Realtors who are registered with BGRS. They arranged a video call where Chris and Colin learned more about the plans and priorities for their move from BC to Ontario. Like many members who are reposted, there was a home to sell before they could confidently purchase a home in Ottawa. For a different twist, these members were also expecting an(other) addition to their family in the spring PLUS 1 member was scheduled for service at sea for the next several weeks. Needless to say, subsequent communication was a little spotty! Time can often pass while members await their official COS or for their current home to be sold. Here, Colin was not certain when the HHT would be scheduled and was even still waiting for confirmation that the team would be needed. In the meantime, he created a custom search portal to track home sales in Ottawa, continued to send market updates, and kept checking in on how things were coming along with the home sale preparation.
At long last, messages were exchanged! The house was listed on MLS in May, then sold in June! Somewhere in there a beautiful baby was born. Plans were made for an HHT at the end of June. Since all of the systems and parameters were already in place, it was easy for Colin to quickly kick the search into high gear. Finally, over 3 months after their first zoom call, all parties were boots on the ground in Ottawa and ready for a week filled with home viewings, school ratings, neighbourhood reports, and lots of phone calls. New baby certainly got to see lots of Ottawa in between feedings and naps!
To keep things moving, Colin scheduled every one of their top listings choices for Day 1, with a couple of late additions + some 2nd viewings on Day 2. After months of planning and updates, everything came together nicely (and quickly). By Day 3 a great deal had been negotiated & accepted, home inspections were booked & executed (Colin always has a couple of BGRS inspectors on standby during an HHT), and I think there was even time for some sightseeing. Maybe just some downtime at the hotel…. Either way, another happy ending to an HHT.
As we know, reposting letters can come at different times of the year. They can be requested, or they can be unexpected. Some of our house hunting trips come together only a few days after our initial contact with our new clients. However they happen, trust is always a key component to a successful HHT. It is challenging to by a home in the best of situations, and CAF members are required to work with a Realtor who they have likely never met. They need to feel that when they arrive in Ottawa, they can trust that the information they receive is current and insightful to meet their requirements and be confident that the details have been taken care of. The team at Ottawa Relocations is experienced, focused, and determined to make every HHT a huge success for every single military relocation. Just ask their past clients!
Interest Rates
