ANNUAL REAL ESTATE REPORT: FAIRWINDS 2017
THE YEAR IN REVIEW
This year our real estate market took everyone by surprise. 
At the beginning of the year, most economists were predicting a sluggish market with little or no price gains. The reality is that it was an incredibly strong year for real estate in Stittsville and Fairwinds in particular. This was fuelled by a lack of inventory in our area. This has put upward pressure on prices. Prices are up across all segments and the demand is much stronger for Fairwinds when compared to 2016. This is evident when we look at the time on the market. The average home spent about 50% less time on the market in 2017. Let’s look at the numbers:
* All data is from MLS statistics for the Fairwinds area outlined in the map above
** CDOM: Consecutive days on market
MILITARY FACTOR
I have had the pleasure of working with 100’s of military families relocating into and out of Ottawa. Five to ten years ago many of these clients were buying in Orleans. However, with the relocation of the DND to the West end these clients have shifted their focus. Stittsville has become one of their most sought-after communities of choice. Stittsville is sought after because it has a tight-knit community feel and is family orientated. The good schools, amenities, and reasonable house values always play a role in their decision. The Fairwinds neighbourhood, in particular, has always been the most popular. I often refer to this neighbourhood with my military friends as CFB Fairwinds. If you want more info on military relocations, check out OttawaRelocations.ca
GROWTH
In my opinion, Stittsville’s prices are slightly undervalued. I really do believe our community is one of the best in the city. All the major indicators seem to point to more economic growth in the city. Stittsville is beginning to get the recognition it deserves as a wonderful place to live and raise a family. With the increasing demand and tighter supply, the average prices should increase again in 2018. Take a look at this figure showing the projected population growth in Ottawa.
POPULATION VS GROWTH
SUPPLY/ DEMAND
Prices are usually determined by the most basic economic principle of supply and demand. This past year inventory was tight and demand was solid. I have many buyers that should have been in the market in ’17 but could not find a place because of tight supply and multiple bids. They along with many other buyers will now seek to find accommodation in 2018. I think our tight supply will continue into the new year. I think we are in for another competitive market in early 2018.
UNEMPLOYMENT
Unemployment is always one of biggest indicators when it comes to real estate prices. In Ottawa, we are fortunate to have a stable workforce anchored by the public service. Income levels support our current real estate prices and would still be able to accommodate price gains. Essentially, affordability is good. Especially compared to other markets like Vancouver or Toronto.
OTTAWA REQUIRED VS ACTUAL INCOME
MORTGAGE RULES
The new mortgage rules will affect affordability for buyers. Insured mortgages will now need to be stress tested at the higher bank qualifying rate. This will reduce the average buyer’s purchasing power by about 20%. I am one of the few Realtors who actually agrees with this policy. We need to have buyers that can withstand any future increases in the mortgage rates. I think it is prudent and will help ensure that home buyers are not taking on debt that they can’t afford in the future. This protection will only help stabilize our market in the future.
MORTGAGE RATES
I sat in on a presentation by CIBC chief economist Benjamin Tal. He was asked if rates were going to rapidly increase in the upcoming few years. His response was that we won’t ever see very high rates again. We have different mechanisms and a central policy that we did not have in the 80’s/90’s.
OTTAWA CMA, MLS ® PRICE
MY PREDICTIONS FOR 2018
This year has been a game changer for Fairwinds. Homes are staying on the market for much less time and in general, the inventory has been very low. I expect this trend to continue throughout 2018 and this could once again put upward pressure on home prices. I expect it to be a very competitive market. The news that Fairwinds is shortlisted for light rail in the future will only help our market in the years to come. If you have any questions this year about home values in the area or are curious about what the home down the street sold for please keep me in mind. I am happy to be the local economist/Realtor.
If you are curious about your homes worth please fill in this form for a no-obligation market assessment.