From the blog...

Ottawa Housing Market Sees Modest Sales Recovery as New Listings Slow in October

Ottawa Housing Market Sees Modest Sales Recovery as New Listings Slow in October

October Market Snapshot

Ottawa’s real estate market showed some signs of stabilisation in October, with a small increase in completed sales and a slowdown in new listings helping to improve the balance between buyers and sellers. Despite these changes, the market continued to favour buyers, with overall sales remaining below the levels recorded a year ago.

Average residential prices also experienced a slight decline, following several months of relative stability between July and September. However, the reduction in active inventory and months of supply, alongside an improved sales-to-new-listings ratio, offered some indication that market conditions may be beginning to settle.

While these developments provide a degree of encouragement for sellers, the improvement was partly driven by the typical seasonal reduction in new listings as the market moves towards winter.

Tami Eades, President of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB), commented on the latest figures:

“October brought some welcome relief for sellers, with a modest increase in sales and fewer new listings helping to ease some of the pressure we’ve seen in recent months,” said Tami Eades, President of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB).

“However, buyers continue to have considerable choice, and market conditions remain softer than a year ago. As we head into winter, employment uncertainty, borrowing costs, and housing policy will continue to influence buyer confidence and market activity. We’ll be watching closely to see whether October’s improvement carries through into the coming months.”

Ottawa Real Estate Sales and New Listing Trends

October saw 1,048 residential properties change hands through the MLS® System, representing a 10.7% decrease compared with the same month in 2025. However, transactions increased by 3.8% compared with September.

Looking at the previous 10 years, the September-to-October sales trend was evenly split, with five years recording an increase and five experiencing a decline. October’s result was within the usual historical range for this time of year, although it was still the third-lowest October sales total since 2016.

All three primary property categories experienced annual declines:

• Single-family homes: 558 sales, down 12.5% year over year.
• Townhouses: 350 sales, representing a 3.0% decrease.
• Apartments: 115 sales, down 23.3%.

On the supply side, 2,382 new properties were brought to market during October. This was 1.2% fewer than October 2025 and 18.6% below September’s total.

Despite the monthly reduction, new listing activity remained historically elevated. October recorded the third-highest number of new listings for the month since 2016, sitting 26.1% above the previous 10-year average of 1,889.

Breaking the figures down by property type:

• Single-family homes: 1,202 new listings, an increase of 1.3% from October 2025 but a 22.3% decrease from September. This was the second-highest October total since 2016.
• Townhouses: 740 new listings, up 1.9% annually and down 11.8% month over month. This represented the highest October total recorded over the same period.
• Apartments: 367 new listings, down 10.9% compared with last year and 18.1% from September. This was close to the previous 10-year October average of 362.

Looking at the broader picture, Ottawa recorded 11,335 residential sales between January and October 2026, a 7.3% decline compared with the same period last year. The combined dollar value of these transactions reached approximately $7.9 billion, down 8.0%.

Meanwhile, 25,352 new listings entered the market during the first 10 months of the year, representing a 3.4% increase year over year.

Home Prices, Inventory and Buyer-Seller Conditions

Residential property values continued to experience modest downward movement in October.

The average sale price across Ottawa was $678,512, down 4.5% from October 2025 and 1.0% compared with September. The median sale price also moved lower, reaching $622,000. This represented a 3.9% annual decline and a 0.5% decrease from the previous month.

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark stood at $616,900, falling 1.3% year over year and 1.1% month over month.

Unlike average and median prices, which can be influenced by the types of properties selling in a given month, the HPI measures price changes using homes with consistent characteristics. Its seasonally adjusted figures showed a decline of approximately 0.5% in October, compared with a 1.5% decrease in September. This suggests that the rate of price adjustment may be slowing.

There were 4,582 active residential listings available at the end of October. Although this represented a 4.8% reduction from September, inventory remained 6.4% higher than it was a year earlier.

October’s active listing total was the second-highest for the month since 2016. The only higher figure during that period was recorded in October 2016, when inventory reached 5,075 properties.

Two important measures of market balance also shifted in October:

• The sales-to-new-listings ratio increased from 34.5% in September to 44.0%.
• Months of inventory decreased from 4.8 to 4.4.

These changes indicate a somewhat tighter market compared with September, although the improvement was largely supported by the reduction in new properties coming onto the market, alongside the modest increase in completed sales.

New listings fell by 18.6% between September and October. For context, the median decrease across the previous 10 September-to-October periods was 14.6%, with every one of those years also recording a decline. This suggests that while the seasonal slowdown was expected, the reduction in new supply was more pronounced than usual.

Nevertheless, conditions remain less competitive for sellers than they were last year. In October 2025, the sales-to-new-listings ratio was 48.7%, while months of inventory stood at 3.7.

Properties sold for an average of 97.5% of their original listing price, unchanged from September but below the 97.9% recorded in October 2025. The median time required to sell a property was 25.5 days, improving from 27 days in September and sitting close to the 25 days recorded a year earlier.

Market conditions also varied considerably depending on property type:

• Single-family homes: Inventory represented 4.0 months of supply, with a benchmark price of $699,200. This was 0.8% lower than a year earlier.
• Townhouses: Months of inventory stood at 3.6, while the benchmark price reached $539,800, down 4.3% annually.
• Apartments: Supply remained considerably higher at 7.4 months of inventory, compared with 7.3 in September and 5.8 in October 2025. The apartment benchmark price was $377,500, representing a 5.3% annual decrease and a 0.9% decline from September.

Apartments continue to face the most challenging conditions of Ottawa’s three main property categories. Their higher inventory levels and continued price adjustments have made this segment particularly sensitive to the softer market environment throughout 2026.

How Different Areas of Ottawa Performed

Although Ottawa’s overall market showed some improvement during October, activity and inventory levels differed across the city’s suburban, central and rural communities.

The suburban market remained the largest contributor to residential transactions, accounting for 753 sales, or 71.9% of all properties sold across Ottawa. Despite this significant share of activity, each of the three suburban areas recorded fewer sales than in October 2025.

Given how much of the city’s overall activity takes place in these communities, the annual slowdown across the suburbs played an important role in keeping Ottawa’s overall sales figures below last year’s levels.

In general, suburban locations continued to demonstrate stronger market conditions than central and rural areas.

Ottawa Suburb East recorded the tightest conditions across all seven submarkets, with 3.5 months of inventory and a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 51.0%.

Other suburban areas also maintained relatively balanced supply levels:

• Ottawa Suburb West recorded 3.7 months of inventory.
• Ottawa Suburb South recorded 4.1 months of inventory.

By comparison, Ottawa Centre and Ottawa Rural East experienced higher inventory levels, at 6.6 and 7.3 months respectively. Rural East was also one of the areas where inventory increased compared with September, highlighting that the improvement seen in the wider Ottawa market was not reflected uniformly across every community.

The remaining rural markets recorded more moderate supply levels. Ottawa Rural South had 4.1 months of inventory, while Ottawa Rural West recorded 4.4 months.

However, transaction volumes in these locations were considerably smaller, with just 57 sales in Rural South and 66 in Rural West. As a result, individual monthly changes can have a greater influence on the figures, making longer-term comparisons particularly important.

For anyone considering buying or selling, these local differences reinforce the importance of looking beyond citywide statistics. Pricing, buyer competition and the time a property may spend on the market can vary significantly depending on its neighbourhood and property category.

October’s figures suggest some easing in overall market conditions, but understanding the supply and demand within a specific area remains essential when deciding how to approach a sale or purchase.

What Could Shape Ottawa’s Housing Market Over the Coming Months?

As Ottawa approaches the winter season, employment prospects, borrowing costs and government housing policy are likely to remain significant influences on real estate activity.

Employment uncertainty is a particular concern for the region. An analysis from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, reported by the Ottawa Citizen, identified approximately 15,000 fewer people employed locally since March 2025. This represented a greater employment decline than in any other large municipality in Ontario over the same period, with federal public-service reductions identified as a major contributing factor.

However, employment figures can tell different stories depending on the timeframe being considered. September’s seasonally adjusted employment estimate for the Ontario portion of the Ottawa–Gatineau census metropolitan area remained above the level recorded a year earlier, despite a decrease from August.

Previous periods of federal workforce reductions have coincided with weaker housing sales and rising inventory levels in Ottawa. While this historical relationship does not establish that employment cuts are responsible for all of the current market slowdown, it does highlight why further changes to the federal workforce are being closely monitored.

Federal Budget and Potential Housing Policy Changes

The federal budget, scheduled for release on November 5, could provide further clarity for Ottawa households and the wider housing sector.

Details surrounding potential public-service staffing changes will be particularly relevant for residents assessing their financial and employment outlook. Any new housing-related announcements could also influence affordability and purchasing decisions.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has already outlined several recommendations in its pre-budget submission, including proposed changes to housing finance and mortgage insurance. One of its suggestions involves improving support for buyers purchasing individual units within small multiplex developments.

Whether any of these recommendations are adopted remains to be seen, but the government’s approach to housing affordability and financing will be another important factor to watch.

Interest Rates and the Wider Economic Picture

Economic conditions across Canada are also contributing to uncertainty among prospective buyers.

Statistics Canada reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) was essentially unchanged in August, followed by an advance estimate indicating a 0.1% contraction in September.

Borrowing costs have also moved in a different direction following the Bank of Canada’s October announcement. On October 28, the central bank increased its policy interest rate to 2.5%, marking the first rate increase in three years. Persistent inflation pressures were cited as a key reason behind the decision.

With affordability already a consideration for many households, changes in interest rates and the broader economic outlook could influence how confidently buyers approach the market over the coming months.

New Construction Adds Another Dimension to Housing Demand

Activity in Ottawa’s new-home market has also been worth watching, particularly as affordability measures may be influencing purchasing decisions.

According to the Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association (GOHBA), 521 new homes were sold in September, representing an 81.5% increase compared with September 2025. Cumulative sales between January and September were also up 53.8% year over year.

Expanded, temporary HST relief for eligible newly constructed homes may be contributing to their increased appeal compared with existing resale properties.

Although the available figures do not demonstrate that buyers are moving away from resale homes in favour of new construction, the difference in activity between the two segments makes new-home sales an important part of the wider Ottawa housing picture.

As the year draws to a close, the relationship between resale inventory, new construction, affordability and buyer confidence will be worth monitoring.

Final Thoughts

October’s Ottawa housing statistics point towards a market that may be gradually finding a more balanced position, although buyers continue to benefit from greater choice and less competitive conditions than they experienced a year ago.

The increase in monthly sales and reduction in new listings provided some relief for sellers, while lower months of inventory suggested a modest improvement in market conditions. However, annual sales and price comparisons remain weaker, with apartments continuing to experience the greatest pressure.

Looking ahead, the direction of Ottawa’s real estate market will depend on more than seasonal changes alone. Employment stability, federal housing decisions, interest rates and affordability will all play a role in determining how buyers and sellers approach the months ahead.

For now, October offers some encouraging signs, but a sustained recovery