A story on the “hot” Ottawa housing market was recently featured in the Globe and Mail. I have been a Realtor for 14 years and I have never seen an article in this paper about Ottawa’s market. This National coverage is usually only reserved for the big markets of Vancouver or Toronto. Our housing market right now is just hard to ignore.
Prices are up again over last year. Our average price for a residential-class property was up 2.7% over last February, sitting at $429,600. In the residential-class property segment, there were 729 units sold which is a decrease of 5.3% over last February. This is likely due to less inventory. In the condo market, 250 units sold which is an increase of 7.8% from last February and a price increase to 5.6% with the average sale price at $274,174 for condos in Ottawa last month. With a combined total of 979 units sold in February and an overall decrease of 2.3%.
The Ottawa housing market has been extremely active over the past 6-9 months. It has been quite amazing to observe. New regulations and rising interest rates have some homeowners wondering if we have seen the last of these price gains. Here is a market minute update:
Our local economy is strong and consumer confidence is high. I really see no indications that this real estate market will cool anytime soon. Especially when I look at the most basic economic concept of supply and demand. Right now the supply is very limited in Ottawa and the demand is strong. We have only 6 weeks of inventory available right now in many neighbourhoods. This indicates a strong sellers market. We haven’t even hit the Spring market yet! If you are curious to whats happening in your neighbourhood feel free to get in touch.
This year our real estate market took everyone by surprise. At the beginning of the year, most economists were predicting a sluggish market with little or no price gains. The reality is that it was an incredibly strong year for real estate in Ottawa with solid price gains. This was fuelled by a lack of inventory in most neighbourhoods and segments of the market. The most significant change I found this year is that almost all styles of homes in various price ranges were extremely active. I had buyers looking for luxury homes over $1M and first-timers looking in the suburbs. In both cases, and everything in between, we were faced with lack of inventory and multiple offers. In some instances, we were competing against 12-14 other offers. It made buying a house more challenging for sure. Here is a statistical look and recap of the Ottawa market in 2017.
* All data is from Ottawa MLS statistics
** CDOM: Consecutive days on market
*** Percentage change is from 2016 stats
IMMIGRATION
Under the Liberal government, immigration has increased to over 300,000 annually. Many are settled into smaller cities but eventually make their way to the larger urban centres. Since Ottawa is the number 1 place to live in Canada, it is always a popular destination. This graph illustrates the future population growth in Ottawa.
POPULATION VS EMPLOYMENT
DEBT
The biggest concern I have right now is the mountain of debt that Canadians are carrying. We have more debt per capita than any other developed nation. This is something we will have to monitor moving forward.
FOREIGN BUYERS?
Contrary to what some people believe, Ottawa’s prices have not been rising due to foreign buyers. Not yet anyway. Right now foreign buyers own less than 0.7% of Ottawa condos and this is the same percentage as in 2014 (according to CMHC). In Vancouver, this is as high as 7.5%.
What I am seeing is some families relocating to Ottawa from Toronto. Basically cashing out in T.O. and moving down the 401. They are attracted to Ottawa because of its relative affordability, awesome lifestyle, and its location that is close to both Montreal and Toronto. As other major markets get too expensive we may start seeing more foreign buyers choose Ottawa. We are like the Switzerland of real estate.
SUPPLY/ DEMAND
Prices are usually determined by the most basic economic principle of supply and demand. This past year inventory was tight and demand was solid. I have many buyers that should have been in the market in 17′ but could not find a place because of tight supply and multiple bids. They along with many other buyers will now seek to find accommodation in 2018. I think our tight supply will continue into the new year. I think we are in for another competitive market in early 2018.
UNEMPLOYMENT
Unemployment is always one of biggest indicators when it comes to real estate prices. In Ottawa, we are fortunate to have a stable workforce anchored by the public service. Income levels support our current real estate prices and would still be able to accommodate new price gains. Essentially affordability is good. Especially compared to other markets like Vancouver or Toronto.
OTTAWA REQUIRED INCOME VS ACTUAL INCOME
MORTGAGE RATES
I sat in on a presentation by CIBC chief economist Benjamin Tal. He was asked if rates were going to rapidly increase in the upcoming few years. His response was that we won’t ever see very high rates again. We have different mechanisms and a central policy that we did not have in the 80’s/90’s when rates for homes are similar to what we are paying on credit cards.
MORTGAGE RULES: NEW STRESS TEST
The new mortgage rules will affect affordability for buyers. Insured mortgages will now need to be stress tested at the higher bank qualifying rate. This will reduce the average buyer’s purchasing power by about 20%. I am one of the few Realtors who actually agrees with this policy. We need to have buyers that can withstand any future increases in the mortgage rates. I think it is prudent and will help ensure that home buyers are not taking on debt that they can’t afford in the future. This protection will only help stabilize our market in the future.
OTTAWA CMA, MLS ® PRICE
MY PREDICTIONS FOR 2018
This time of year is usually pretty slow. However, I am off to present an offer for one of my clients in a snowstorm. We will be competing against 6-8 others. Basically what I am getting at is the market still has no inventory in many segments. I expect this trend to continue right through the Spring market. It will put upward pressure on prices again. I had some clients purchase a home in multiple bids in Hintonburg earlier this year. They were concerned that they paid too much. Buyers remorse is inevitable when you go way over asking price. This week the exact same unit with fewer upgrades came for sale and sold for 20k more than what my clients paid just 3 months ago. It tells me that some buyers in these areas are getting desperate to find accommodations. Once again we could be embarking on another very active and robust market in 2018. With the higher prices in the central locations, this will also help condo sales. Many buyers are being priced out of the freehold market and are turning back to condos as a viable option. For me, the wildcards in the market are the new mortgage rules and how Ottawa can absorb them. I think we can but it will make it harder for buyers in the higher price points. My gut tells me that there will be negative news from Toronto and Vancouver this year on the average price front. There are so many rules and regulations now for their markets to continue their torrent pace. How does this national coverage (if it happens) affect the consumer confidence here. Again, this is just my personal opinion here. If you are curious about what’s happening in your neighbourhood feel free to get in touch. We are always happy to provide you with sales data in and around your home.
PERCENTAGE INCREASE OF OTTAWA HOUSING PRICES
* Based on RES & CON MLS Sales
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The Ottawa real estate market is still pretty hot, especially considering the time of year. Many Ottawa home buyers are looking to purchase before the new mortgage rules are implemented in January. Prices are up again over last year. Our average price for a residential-class property was up 3.2% over last November, sitting at $418,354. It is the number of houses sold that is impressive. In the residential-class property segment, there were 945 units sold which is an increase of 24% over last November. In the condo market, 294 units sold which is an increase of 27.8%. With a combined total of 1239 units sold in November and an overall increase of 24.9%. The prices may not have increased much from last year’s November but the number of units sold shows how active the Ottawa real estate still is.
As always feel free to reach out if you are curious to whats happening in your neighbourhood. I am always happy to help.
The Ottawa housing market results are in and the numbers for the average sale prices are up again month over month. Our average price for a residential-class property was up 8.6% over last October, sitting at $425,256. The condos are up 6.9% sitting at $269,604.
Units sold cooled a little in the condo market last month as for the first time in awhile they dropped well below the double-digit mark. 261 Condo units were sold last month compared to 255 in October 2016.
All in all, this has been another very active month for Ottawa real estate Look at the increases in the home prices. Really surprising to see such big numbers over last year. Nobody predicted this. There is some concern that the new mortgage rules will cool that early in 2018. I am not so sure it will have a big impact on Ottawa. For the most part Ottawa, home buyers are more conservative than say Vancouver or Toronto buyers when it comes to how much of their income they put towards real estate. Buyers will end up affording about 20% less in purchase price with the new rules. It will force people to stay within their comfort zone in terms of what they purchase. Might slow things slightly short term but in the long run, it will ensure that we continue to have a healthy balanced real estate market in Ottawa.
The Ottawa housing market results are in and the numbers for the average sale prices are up again month over month. Our average price for a residential-class property was up 8.2% over last September, sitting at $416,464. The condos are up 3.9% sitting at $261,548.
The Ottawa condo market was busy again. Units sold are still in the double digits compared to last year at this time. 311 Condo units were sold last month compared to 269 in September 2016. The major strength in the condo market is still the number of units being sold.
This fall season continues to be very active for Ottawa buyers and sellers. There has been a slight slow down in units sold -1.6% for the residential-class. That coupled with the fact that demand is strong as let to a very active real estate market here in Ottawa. If you are curious to know whats happening in your neighbourhood please feel free to get in touch.
Earlier this week we were featured in the Ottawa Citizen. Check out the article here: Ottawa Citizen Article
The Fall season is almost upon us. The kids are getting settled into school and everyone is getting back into a routine. Our little man Aiden just had his first day of school. It was pretty hard seeing him board his school bus for the first time! Kids grow up quick.
The Ottawa housing market results are in and the numbers for August are very positive. Our average price for a residential class property was up 7.6% over last August. We are sitting at $420,355. We are up over 7% YTD. Incredible numbers really considering most economists predicted the opposite.
The Ottawa condo market was busy. The prices were down slightly by less than half a percent. The average price of an Ottawa condo was $270,768. Where I see strength is in the units sold. We are up 22% over last years numbers. This has really been a nice turnaround for condos this year.
This fall season will continue to be very active for Ottawa buyers and sellers. There are still many buyers in the marketplace who were unable to secure their home in the Spring/Summer due to increased competition and tight supply. I expect this trend to continue for at least the next 90 days. If you have any questions on the market please let me know.
