We recently had the pleasure of assisting a military couple with their house hunt in Ottawa, turning it into an efficient and exciting adventure. The journey began with setting up a personalized portal tailored to their preferences,
allowing them to interact with listings by favouriting, disliking, and commenting on homes. This interactive approach helped Chris develop a strategic itinerary to maximize their limited viewing time.
To ensure efficiency during their brief visit, Chris pre-booked an inspection with a trusted home inspector before the couple’s arrival. This foresight was crucial in accommodating the tight timeframe and guaranteed that they could work with a reliable inspector.
Upon their arrival on a Sunday, the couple dived into their home search, visiting 28 homes over four days across Ottawa and its surrounding areas. Chris’s deep knowledge of the region helped them explore a variety of neighbourhoods, from the small-town feel of Carleton Place & Kemptville to the notable suburbs of Kanata, Barrhaven and Stittsville. We explored them all! More inventory in the 2024 posting season has made military house hunting in Ottawa easier than in previous years. Good to see more balanced conditions in our marketplace.
The highlight of their trip was of course finding their dream home in Kemptville and swiftly fulfilling the home inspection condition, providing them with essential peace of mind.
This story exemplifies the success of a well-planned House Hunting Trip (HHT). If you’re preparing for your HHT in Ottawa or surrounding areas, our team is ready to guide you through every step, ensuring a smooth and successful home-buying experience.
Interested in starting your house-hunting journey? Contact us today to learn how we can assist you!
The Ottawa real estate market underwent notable changes in the past year, transitioning from a seller’s market to a more balanced one. This shift was influenced by multiple interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada, which promptly led to a slight decrease in home prices and demand as they adjusted to the rising rates. The heightened cost of living and escalating mortgage costs caused many individuals to delay their plans for buying or selling homes. Thus, you can see a large decrease in houses sold in 2023, down 11% from 2022. Let’s look at the key indicators of our market.
Average sales prices are for 2023 based on MLS sales. Combined is for all property classes. Arrows are gains/losses from 2022.
KEY INDICATORS
Interest Rates and Inflation
As inflation has risen the Bank of Canada has hiked interest rates to cool the market. So far they have managed to get inflation down from a high of 8% to 3.1%. Still off from their 2% target. CMHC reports that only 300,000 homeowners have renewed mortgages at new higher rates. In the next two years, 2.2 million households will face increased rates. That is a big number and if the rates don’t fall soon it will cause lots of financial pain for many Ottawa homeowners. Analysts suggest this may prompt the BOC to cut interest rates in the first half of the year. I believe our housing market hangs in the balance with BOC decisions. If rates fall our market will be robust. If they stay the same I think it will be a very balanced market. If they rise again this year, God help us! My prediction is that rates will come down in time for the Spring market and will stay in the 4-4.5% range indefinitely
Immigration & Population Growth
Canada continues to lead G7 countries in population growth with record immigration this past year. If this continues we will see our 40 million population double in 25 years. Big cities like Ottawa will grow to accommodate but will our major cities grow fast enough? With newcomers, we will see supply challenges continue in the future with added pressure on rent and housing prices. My belief is the housing shortage will be the number one issue in the years ahead unless the city, province, and federal governments get serious about changing course now. In Ottawa, builders are facing high costs and ridiculous wait times to get permits and develop. The added costs go back directly to the consumer.
Supply and Demand
The fundamental economic principle of supply and demand lies at the heart of economic dynamics. Over the past 5 to 6 years, Ottawa has grappled with a shortage of supply, reaching its lowest point in February 2021. Coincidentally, prices have experienced a rapid ascent, reaching a peak frenzy when inventory levels were at their lowest. Interestingly, steady demand characterized the early months of last year, gradually waning as time progressed and interest rates hiked. During this time many individuals opted against selling their homes, thus eliminating much of the supply as well. In short, we ended the year with a balanced market with lower than average sales and less supply available. However, if historical trends are any indication, this equilibrium may be short-lived, as the continuously growing city of Ottawa is likely to revert to a seller’s market sooner rather than later. Especially if we see some rate decreases from the BOC.
Based on OREB RES & CON MLS Sales
If you are curious about our home’s worth please fill in this form for a no-obligation market assessment.
Celebrating another year in real estate! I embarked on this incredible journey 19 years ago when I sold my first home. Gratitude overflows for the wonderful clients who’ve been a part of this journey. Despite the challenges presented by our local real estate market in the past year, our team achieved growth and we were able to host three amazing client events. Our passion lies in giving back to our clients and community. We have some exciting plans for this year, including our most significant giveaway to date. All the best in the New Year!
This past year was one that I will not soon forget! In the beginning of January I remember one of our team listings selling with 20 plus offers on it for an absolutely surprisingly high price. The ensuing few months brought more of the same. A frenzy like I have never seen in our local market before and may not see again. Short supply and insatiable demand put immense upward pressure on prices. Buyers were desperate to get in on this rising market that was also fueled by historically low interest rates and tight supply. It was the perfect storm of economic conditions that led to this unprecedented market. However, the dark clouds were circling by late Spring. Inflation was starting to get out of control and the Bank of Canada needed to act with interest rate hikes to start reining it in. Every rate hike chipped away at our hot market until finally their mission was accomplished by early Fall and prices were on a steady decline with consumer confidence and affordability becoming major issues. There is so much to consider when thinking about where the market will go from here. To understand it we must look at the key indicators that will all have a role to play in where our market goes from here.
Average sales prices are for 2022 based on MLS sales.
Combined is for all property classes. Arrows are gains/losses from 2021.
OTTAWA REAL ESTATE REPORT
FORECAST 2023
I think the Ottawa real estate market will have the opposite trajectory of 2022. Where the market was hot early in 2022 I think the market will get off to a sluggish start to the year. By Spring the market will be much more active. Lots of buyers who put the brakes on last year will see the market stabilize and be more confident to buy. By the Fall I could see price increases and more activity in the market. Much will depend on interest rates and inflation. One thing is for sure. It will be an interesting year in our local housing market.
This is where I get my crystal ball out and try to figure out where our local market goes from here. I believe that Canadian home prices will decline in the next 12 months a further 4-6% over 2022. However, I think Ottawa will weather the storm and actually see a slight increase in prices in 2023. Below you will see a few points to consider on our market and economy that will play a role in where we go from here.
KEY INDICATORS
Population Growth
One of the major key indicators is population. Canada’s pace of population growth remains the highest in the G7. Numbers from the most recent census in the Spring of 2021 has shown that to remain true, with Ontario, 5.8% outpacing the national average of 5.2%. Immigration is remaining the number one factor driving population growth. As you will see from the chart below, housing inventory in Ottawa is still on the decline. This again puts upward pressure on pricing, which has dropped from its peak in 2022 but is still on the increase overall.
Historic Ottawa Freehold & Condo Inventory Since 2004
Inventory
Supply is still a major issue in Ottawa. Many new construction projects were halted due to lower demand, high material costs, declining prices, and labor shortages. With less available on the new construction side of the market, more buyers will be looking at the resale market. Ottawa is a sought after and growing city. Long term housing supply is still an issue here that was talked about quite a bit in the early part of 2022. At some point we will get back to bidding wars and an active market again. Much will depend on this critical key indicator.
Bank of Canada Interest Rate and Inflation
This will be the most important factor in where our market goes. I can make all the predictions I want but if the Bank of Canada raises interest rates more than 50 basis points we will see an immediate decrease in prices in Ottawa. Personally I don’t see that happening. If anything I could see a .25% increase in the short term and then potentially rate decreases by late 2023.
Based on OREB RES & CON MLS Sales | 2023 Prediction
If you are curious about your home’s worth please fill in this form for a no-obligation market assessment.
Ottawa Real Estate Board Trend Analysis – Residential Property Class
WE GO ABOVE AND BEYOND FOR OUR CLIENTS
We are so pleased that we were able to host more events this year! We kicked it off with our private showing of the movie Lightyear! It was great to have a packed house to watch a movie in a theatre again! My kiddos are already researching a good title for our next movie morning. We also had the opportunity to catch up with many of our clients at our 7th Annual Santa Party. This is our most anticipated client event of the year. It was so great to host everyone. We are already thinking about what we can do to make it even better next year. There is talk of the Grinch making a visit! We also continued our new annual tradition with our 3rd Annual Stittsville Food Bank Fundraiser, we partnered again with Maverick’s Donuts. We raised $2,000 again this year! Our mission is to create a raving fan service experience for every client and bring value long after our clients have bought or sold real estate. We are always looking for new ways to do this. We are excited about what we can do for you in 2023. If you have any real estate needs or know of anyone looking please keep our team in mind.
Do you ever feel like you are in the movie Groundhog Day? Well, I certainly do. We are starting the year with school online, COVID is still a part of everyday life, and for home buyers, very few homes to choose from. Prices are smashing price records and making economists and analysts look like they have no idea what they are doing. Is 2022 the year we get back to some normalcy? I don’t think anyone could have predicted that a global pandemic would send housing prices through the roof. The question now becomes well what’s next?
Average sales prices are for 2021 based on MLS sales.
Combined is for all property classes. Arrows are gains from 2020.
OTTAWA REAL ESTATE REPORT
FORECAST 2022
It has been hard to predict how the market would react to the pandemic, now, two years in, it is even more challenging to make any sense of it. I have read everything available including CMHC reports, Economist, and leading analysts’ predictions. This year I feel like everyone is being careful with their thoughts. Likely because no one really knows, impossible to predict the unpredictable. I refer to the economic principle of supply and demand. A trend over the pandemic is low inventory, hovering around, or just under one month’s supply, a true seller’s market. Currently, supply is very low, with just this one indicator it is difficult to see how prices will not go anywhere but up.
REAL ESTATE CHANGING
Our industry is constantly changing. There are many new players in the local market that offer a wide range of services to buyers and sellers. You can auction your home, sell it with a call centre in Toronto, use a local Realtor or put a for sale sign on the lawn yourself. There are 3500 agents in Ottawa to choose from. Having this many choices is overwhelming but also very good for the consumer. It forces everyone who wants to compete for your business to up their value proposition. Our team has completely revamped our services for 2022. We are always striving to bring the best value to our clients. We have a menu of services that will help us compete against any platforms. So if you are in the market this year to buy or sell, give us a call.
Based on OREB RES & CON MLS Sales | 2022 Prediction
KEY INDICATORS
Our Country’s Population Growth in 2021
G7 Population Growth 2021
Canada has had the highest population growth in the G7 and also the lowest per capita stock of housing. Quite simply we have a housing supply crisis. This is one of the many reasons why our market prices have escalated so quickly. We can look at all the new developments and cranes in and around our community but it is not enough to have an impact on price gains in 2022. Ottawa in particular has been a sought-after city for new immigration due to its high quality of living.
Historic Ottawa Freehold & Condo Inventory Since 2004
Inventory
As mentioned above. The very core of the price increases is the basic economic principle of supply and demand. In Ottawa we simply do not have enough housing for everyone right now. This is putting upward pressure on prices as buyers compete for what becomes available.
Historic Canadian Inflation Rates Since 1995
Canada’s Inflation Rate
Prices are rising rapidly everywhere. One interesting stat is that container ship costs have gone up 500% since 2019. Those costs get passed along to the consumer. Housing, cars, equipment, lumber, and especially food. COVID has brought about so many unique challenges that will have lasting impacts on our economy. One of them will be that the cost of goods and services will continue to rise. This will have an impact on what buyers will be able to afford.
Variations in Bank of Canada Interest Rates Since 2000
Bank of Canada Overnight Interest Rate
Right now interest rates are the big equalizer. The low rates are making the high prices relatively affordable. How long can these rates stay low? Central bankers are in a tough position. They could decide to act because prices are rising so fast and are not in sync with incomes. If the Bank of Canada should go this route they would also risk causing a housing market downturn. My prediction here is that rates will rise and help slow our market. This will happen in the late summer.
If you are curious about your home’s worth please fill in this form for a no-obligation market assessment.
Ottawa Real Estate Board Trend Analysis – Residential Property Class
WE GO ABOVE AND BEYOND FOR OUR CLIENTS
We are so pleased that we were able to host our Annual Santa Party this year. It was so great to be able to thank our clients by finally being able to hold an event again. We also continued a new annual tradition with our 2nd Annual Stittsville Food Bank Fundraiser, we partnered again with Maverick’s Donuts Stittsville who generously donated their holiday 6-pack donuts for us to sell in support of the food bank. The team matched each donation and raised $2,000 again this year! Our mission is to create a raving fan service experience for every client and bring value long after our clients have bought or sold real estate. If you have any real estate needs in 2022 give us a call.
It was a record-breaking year of growth and price appreciation in Ottawa. Coming into 2020 our supply levels were at all time lows and demand was strong. When the COVID hit supply also dropped. The demand did not. Buyers were still very much interested in purchasing. Having a stable economy in Ottawa helped matters. The pandemic even brought other people who were not thinking about buying into the fold. Privacy and pools became high priorities for some buyers.
The end result was freehold prices up 20%! The average sale price was $582,267 in this category. Who would have thought that we would have record price appreciation in the midst of a pandemic. In the condo market prices soared over 19%! It would have been hard to predict these numbers before the start of the year. Even with the lack of inventory the number of units sold were way up too.
This thriving market is due to inventory shortage, multiple offer situations, record-low mortgage rates and buyers from larger markets. Ottawa is a resilient and sheltered market in comparison to others. Ottawa has secure government and tech sector employment that allowed many to work from home. 2021 will see a continuation of Ottawa’s solid resale market, real estate professionals were deemed essential workers and the market was only slightly shaken by the world-wide pandemic. This market is very active, insulated, and strong.
Average sales prices are for 2020 based on MLS sales.
Combined is for all property classes. Arrows are gains from 2019.
OTTAWA REAL ESTATE REPORT
FORECAST 2021
We are entering the year in the midst of rising COVID cases and economic uncertainty. Not to mention some political unrest with our neighbours to the South. This is a unique place to begin. From a real estate market perspective, I look at the supply and demand metrics to determine where things may be going. We enter this year with very few homes for sale, the sales being recorded so far are noticeably higher than last year. Our supply is exceptionally low and demand still quite high. This will once again make Ottawa a very competitive market for 2021.
Ottawa is a growing city, and I am not sure there is a long-term solution to this price acceleration. Rising prices may be a common theme for the foreseeable future. The biggest change I see in the years to come is in the luxury market. There are many more 1M plus buyers out there now.
Half a million can barely afford you a townhouse now in suburbia. It is kind of surreal thinking about my average sale price in my first year in real estate. It was around $220,000.
I do predict that freehold prices will continue to appreciate at a higher level than condos. Many major projects in Ottawa are in the building stages with dozens more approved. At some point we will have enough condos to satisfy demand. That will come sooner than on the freehold side. Some condo owners have felt a bit trapped with COVID and working from home. I have had a few reach out to change into a freehold and have a bit more space to spread out.
OTTAWA REAL ESTATE REPORT
KEY INDICATORS
WORKING FROM HOME: THE NEW NORMAL
Ottawa’s solid public sector is a great foundational piece to our economy. This represents 20% of the workforce in Ottawa. These jobs are high earnings and are very secure. Ottawa is in a unique position to have so many jobs that can be done remotely. The high-tech sector in Ottawa has been booming, tech-giant Shopify has made working from home permanent for their employees. This has kept our local economy sheltered from what is happening elsewhere. It may also have an impact on where people decide to live. With many working from home permanently extra space is becoming more desirable.
SUPPLY TRENDS LOWER FOR FREEHOLDS & CONDO
This graph illustrates the supply available in the Ottawa real estate market. It is so interesting to see where we are from an inventory perspective when compared to the last 15 years. Supply remained low for 2020, and we are starting out 2021 with very little inventory. This is the heartbeat of the market. As we witnessed in 2020 with inventory this low, prices were pushed way up as buyer competed for homes. Early 2021 seems to be trending in that direction as well. Will be an interesting year!
INCREASED USE OF TECHNOLOGY
I think that the way people buy and sell real estate will forever be impacted by COVID. This year has proven that we can do so much virtually. Our team has sold 10 homes to buyers from out of town (mostly military) who never actually stepped foot in the house they purchased until closing day. We would virtually walk them through the house and usually have a 3D tour to share with them. I am not suggesting everyone would have a comfort level with that. However, if you could have me walk you through a house while you are in the comfort of your own home, would that be beneficial? Some buyers are opting for this for the first visit and then coming through if they like what they saw on the virtual visit.
If you are curious about your home’s worth please fill in this form for a no-obligation market assessment.
It was an incredible year of growth and price appreciation in the Ottawa real estate market. Prices were up in all categories. Year-end figures show the average freehold property sale price was $486,590 in 2019. This represents an 8.9% increase over the previous year. In the condo market prices soared over 9%! It would have been hard to predict these numbers before the start of the year.
These incredible gains are being fueled by the lack of supply and strong demand for Ottawa real estate. As the year went on the supply tightened and this put upward pressure on prices. The prices really started to push up in the 2nd half of the year. In some neighbourhoods in Nepean and Ottawa west, I have seen a price appreciation of 6% between sales in March and sales in September. This is because supply tightened as the year went on and in addition, more buyers entered the marketplace.
In 2019 Ottawa’s population grew to over 1 million people. Our city is maturing into a world-class capital before our very eyes! The new LRT line was unveiled and many new projects are on the way. Legacy projects like the civic hospital relocation, LRT expansion, and Lebreton flats redevelopment are on the horizon. This combined with the insatiable demand for Ottawa real estate should keep our construction market strong for the foreseeable future.
Average sales prices are for 2019 based on MLS sales.
Combined is for all property classes. Arrows are gains from 2018.
OTTAWA REAL ESTATE REPORT
FORECAST 2020
The Ottawa real estate market is showing no signs of weakness. Supply issues will persist in 2020. I don’t expect the inventory will recover in the near future. The absorption rate of our current inventory is like nothing we have seen before! Prices are expected to continue to grow over the upcoming few years. The demand for our real estate is at an all-time peak. This trend will continue to put upward pressure on prices throughout the next few years. Although prices are going up relative to our income we are actually still in a sustainable position. Prices in Ottawa, when compared with our earnings, are still affordable.
Below you can see a table of real estate prices in Ottawa since 1981. The only declining years are in red. The table illustrates just how stable our market is. The only declines were consecutive (94-96) and houses lost less than 3% in each of those years. If you were at a craps table and saw this much black on the board how much money would you be prepared to invest. If you are a long term investor it would be pretty hard to find a scenario where you could lose.
Based on OREB RES & CON MLS Sales | 2020 Prediction
OTTAWA REAL ESTATE REPORT
KEY INDICATORS
OTTAWA: RELATIVELY HIGHER EARNINGS
Ottawa’s solid public sector is a great foundational piece of our economy. This represents 20% of the workforce in Ottawa. These jobs are high earnings with very good security. When I think of my own network of friends, almost every couple has at least one person working for the government. In some cases, both spouses work there and this creates some very high household income. This past year saw a 6.9% increase in our weekly average income. We have not seen that kind of income growth in Ottawa since 2001. When we see our earnings higher than our neighbours down the 401, it surprises some people. Of course with the financial sector in Toronto, there is more wealth and one-percenters. Ottawa just does a better job with the distribution of wealth.
SUPPLY TRENDS LOWER FOR FREEHOLDS & CONDO
Supply is the single biggest issue in our market. It is so interesting to see where we are from an inventory perspective when compared to the last 15 years. We are at the lowest point in both the condo and the freehold segment of the market. Look at the condos available in 2015! Over 6000 on the market. This is the heartbeat of the market. When we see inventory this low, prices can only go in one direction! The little secret I have been telling people about Ottawa’s bargain real estate prices is out! Our market is on fuego.
STEADY EMPLOYMENT GROWTH EXPECTED
The local economy and job market in Ottawa are solid. Steady job growth is expected to continue over the next few years. It is good to see that full-time job growth is up 5%. This is important because people that occupy full-time jobs are much more likely to be approved financially to purchase real estate. Our capital city also is one of the hottest and most diverse tech hubs in North America. Overall the health of our local economy couldn’t be better.
If you are curious about your home’s worth please fill in this form for a no-obligation market assessment.
The fall market is feeling a bit like the Spring market this year. There is the same sense of urgency with buyers and sellers are getting premium prices for their homes. Our team just had a house go up for sale last week and we priced at the higher end of the market. We had over 90 people through the open house and it sold for $65k more than what they were asking. Frankly, I was surprised at such a favourable outcome for our clients. They were quite shocked to see the end selling price.
We have not seen September sales numbers like these in 15 years! We had 1549 properties change hands including condo and residential properties. This is up from 1386 from last year. The numbers would have been even higher if there were good available houses for sale. It is quite remarkable that purchasers are finding houses that meet their needs so well with such little inventory. Buyers are just less picky this year because they know the challenges they face to secure a house.
It is a tough market for buyers but we have had some great successes over the past few months. Buyers just need to be a little patient and strike when the right property becomes available. They also need great representation now more than ever!
The sweet spot price point remains the $350,000 to $500,000 price point. This accounts for 43.5% of all sales in September.
Every neighbourhood is unique. If you want to know what is happing in your area please feel free to get in touch.
Summer is over and the fall real estate market is getting back into full swing. I have noticed already just a few days into September that activity is picking up with buyers and sellers. The fall is typically a very busy time to buy and sell in Ottawa. This year might go down as the busiest ever. There are so many buyers out there just waiting for available homes. Our inventory levels were down quite a bit in August and yet our sales were up when compared to last years numbers. You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to know that this will continue to put upward pressure on prices.
There has also been lots of talk of a recession looming. I think this might be inevitable as the US has gone through the longest recovery in history since their last slow down. However, the most common misconception out there is that housing prices always go down in economic slowdowns. That is just not true. The last economic meltdown in the states, of course, resulted in lower prices but that was because the crisis was directly linked to the wild wild west lending practices in the market.
Bottom line is that interest rates are low, Ottawa’s economy is great, and prices are reasonable relative to our average earnings here. I see strength in our Fall market for sure.
The Ottawa real estate market had a great July. We have not had this kind of activity in a July for 15 years. Typically after a busy Spring market things slow in the summer. This year is the exception. We had over 1800 sales on the MLS system. There is just so much demand out there right now for Ottawa real estate. I am starting to see more inventory come to market which is good news. Hopefully, this will lead us back to a more balanced market. Right now there is around a 1 months supply of housing. This is deep into a sellers market. We would need to get to at least a 3 month supply to start getting closer to something more balanced.
The condo market had another strong month. Condo prices have fully recovered and you can see by the sales numbers that this segment of the market is having a resurgence. This is good news for condo owners and builders. Lots of optimism surrounding the Ottawa market right now. I anticipate a very strong fall market. If you are curious to know what’s happening in your Ottawa neighbourhood feel free to get in touch.
The average price of a residential-class property in June was $500,700. This is the first time we have ever eclipsed the half-million mark in Ottawa. When I first started in real estate 15 years ago 500k was a big number! People would say half a million like it meant something! Hard to believe it is now just average. Many first time buyers are now buying at this price point. It is just the nature of a really healthy local economy, immigration, and the increasing appeal of our real estate market to investors. Maybe in the next 10 years, 1 million will be just an average number. At this pace, you never know!!
Inventory has been sliding in Ottawa. In June our inventory was down 23% from the same time last year and over 30% from just two years ago. Condo listings were down 50% from 2017. Just the drop in this inventory is enough to put upward pressure on prices. Combine that with growing demand and we are seeing double-digit increases in some neighbourhoods. It is definitely a seller’s market but for the most part, buyers are restraining themselves a little bit. They understand the value, many homes priced on the high side of the market can continue to sit.
Interest Rates and Inflation
Supply and Demand
Our Country’s Population Growth in 2021
Historic Ottawa Freehold & Condo Inventory Since 2004
Historic Canadian Inflation Rates Since 1995
Variations in Bank of Canada Interest Rates Since 2000
