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ANNUAL REAL ESTATE REPORT: OTTAWA 2021 IN REVIEW

OTTAWA REAL ESTATE REPORT

Ottawa 2021 Real Estate Market Report Review

Do you ever feel like you are in the movie Groundhog Day? Well, I certainly do. We are starting the year with school online, COVID is still a part of everyday life, and for home buyers, very few homes to choose from. Prices are smashing price records and making economists and analysts look like they have no idea what they are doing. Is 2022 the year we get back to some normalcy?  I don’t think anyone could have predicted that a global pandemic would send housing prices through the roof. The question now becomes well what’s next?

Average sales prices are for 2021 based on MLS sales.

Combined is for all property classes. Arrows are gains from 2020.

OTTAWA REAL ESTATE REPORT

FORECAST 2022

It has been hard to predict how the market would react to the pandemic, now, two years in, it is even more challenging to make any sense of it. I have read everything available including CMHC reports, Economist, and leading analysts’ predictions. This year I feel like everyone is being careful with their thoughts. Likely because no one really knows, impossible to predict the unpredictable. I refer to the economic principle of supply and demand. A trend over the pandemic is low inventory, hovering around, or just under one month’s supply, a true seller’s market. Currently, supply is very low, with just this one indicator it is difficult to see how prices will not go anywhere but up.

REAL ESTATE CHANGING

Our industry is constantly changing. There are many new players in the local market that offer a wide range of services to buyers and sellers. You can auction your home, sell it with a call centre in Toronto, use a local Realtor or put a for sale sign on the lawn yourself. There are 3500 agents in Ottawa to choose from. Having this many choices is overwhelming but also very good for the consumer. It forces everyone who wants to compete for your business to up their value proposition. Our team has completely revamped our services for 2022. We are always striving to bring the best value to our clients. We have a menu of services that will help us compete against any platforms. So if you are in the market this year to buy or sell, give us a call.

Based on OREB RES & CON MLS Sales | 2022 Prediction

KEY INDICATORS

Our Country’s Population Growth in 2021	G7 Population Growth 2021 Canada has had the highest population growth in the G7 and also the lowest per capita stock of housing. Quite simply we have a housing supply crisis. This is one of the many reasons why our market prices have escalated so quickly. We can look at all the new developments and cranes in and around our community but it is not enough to have an impact on price gains in 2022. Ottawa in particular has been a sought-after city for new immigration due to its high quality of living.
Historic Ottawa Freehold & Condo Inventory Since 2004	Inventory As mentioned above. The very core of the price increases is the basic economic principle of supply and demand. In Ottawa we simply do not have enough housing for everyone right now. This is putting upward pressure on prices as buyers compete for what becomes available.
Historic Canadian Inflation Rates Since 1995	Canada’s Inflation Rate Prices are rising rapidly everywhere. One interesting stat is that container ship costs have gone up 500% since 2019. Those costs get passed along to the consumer. Housing, cars, equipment, lumber, and especially food. COVID has brought about so many unique challenges that will have lasting impacts on our economy. One of them will be that the cost of goods and services will continue to rise. This will have an impact on what buyers will be able to afford.
Variations in Bank of Canada Interest Rates Since 2000	Bank of Canada Overnight Interest Rate Right now interest rates are the big equalizer. The low rates are making the high prices relatively affordable. How long can these rates stay low? Central bankers are in a tough position. They could decide to act because prices are rising so fast and are not in sync with incomes. If the Bank of Canada should go this route they would also risk causing a housing market downturn. My prediction here is that rates will rise and help slow our market. This will happen in the late summer.

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