OTTAWA MARKET UPDATE FOR MARCH 2018
With the anticipation of Spring, everyone seems to be in a better mood. People in Ottawa will soon come outside again after a long gruelling hibernation. It is also a great time to get a few things done around the house. We are not there yet but I feel we are getting close!
We are fortunate this year we will not have all the snow melt at once. However, April showers bring May flowers but, if you are having drainage issues, they may also bring expensive water damage. Pay attention to the way the melted snow runs off your roof – it should flow away from your home and its foundation. If you notice any issues, such as water seeping or pooling, it is important to investigate further. It is not a good idea to climb onto the roof so use binoculars to look for damage on shingles or soffits. This work can save you thousands down the road.
This is one that many people forget. A major cause for improper drainage is a blockage in your eavestroughs or downspouts caused by leaves and other debris. Cleaning out your clogged gutters is necessary when seeking to avoid water drainage catastrophes. Since safety is the most important thing, you should only take on this task if you can work safely from a ladder and if your home is no more than one storey. If your roof is any higher than that, you are better off to hire someone to do it. You can hire a service to clean your gutters for around $100.
Tend to chipping paint, crumbling bricks, and small holes in your siding as soon as possible. Making these small repairs can save you money in the long run, not to mention the fact that your home looks newer for longer. These jobs can be done by you or a professional depending on your expertise or comfort level.
I always have my air conditioner serviced in the late Spring as well. If you have any questions please feel free to get in touch.
Multiple offers are always a possibility in some of Ottawa’s most desirable neighbourhoods. With inventory levels at record lows and demand, sky-high multiples are happening across the city and right into suburbia. The hottest segment in the city right now is a suburban townhouse. This was never the case in previous years! Amazing to see this phenomenon develop over the past few months. Now what is happening is that new prices are being established as buyers bid homes up. This will make 2018 a year were we might see some buyers priced right out of our market.
With so much money at stake on every sale it is so important to have the right representation. A listing that is well priced, presented & staged, and marketed should receive multiple offers. From there it will be the Realtor’s role to make sure you maximize your return and help navigate through all the offers. We helped a client recently sell their house for 6k more than the exact same model of townhouse right next door. We had 13 offers, they had 6. It matters who you work with.
The Ottawa housing market has been extremely active over the past 6-9 months. It has been quite amazing to observe. New regulations and rising interest rates have some homeowners wondering if we have seen the last of these price gains. Here is a market minute update:
Our local economy is strong and consumer confidence is high. I really see no indications that this real estate market will cool anytime soon. Especially when I look at the most basic economic concept of supply and demand. Right now the supply is very limited in Ottawa and the demand is strong. We have only 6 weeks of inventory available right now in many neighbourhoods. This indicates a strong sellers market. We haven’t even hit the Spring market yet! If you are curious to whats happening in your neighbourhood feel free to get in touch.
After our annual client Santa party I was approached by a past client who asked me why I do all this after sale stuff. The contests, newsletters, cards, client events etc. He said he would refer our team business no matter what, and that I really didn’t need to do all this stuff. It was an interesting question. The answer is at the heart of my business. Here is what is on our wall at the office:
We are just living out our mission statement. That is what gets me fuelled up every day and excited to go to work. You see our mission in real estate is to create a raving fan service experience for every client and to bring value long after our clients buy or sell. We will always strive to provide this service to clients if they bought 12 years ago or 12 months ago. As our team grows we are able to offer better services and bring new experiences. I look forward to sharing some new initiatives with everyone in the near future.
This year our real estate market took everyone by surprise. At the beginning of the year, most economists were predicting a sluggish market with little or no price gains. The reality is that it was an incredibly strong year for real estate in Ottawa with solid price gains. This was fuelled by a lack of inventory in most neighbourhoods and segments of the market. The most significant change I found this year is that almost all styles of homes in various price ranges were extremely active. I had buyers looking for luxury homes over $1M and first-timers looking in the suburbs. In both cases, and everything in between, we were faced with lack of inventory and multiple offers. In some instances, we were competing against 12-14 other offers. It made buying a house more challenging for sure. Here is a statistical look and recap of the Ottawa market in 2017.
* All data is from Ottawa MLS statistics
** CDOM: Consecutive days on market
*** Percentage change is from 2016 stats
Under the Liberal government, immigration has increased to over 300,000 annually. Many are settled into smaller cities but eventually make their way to the larger urban centres. Since Ottawa is the number 1 place to live in Canada, it is always a popular destination. This graph illustrates the future population growth in Ottawa.
POPULATION VS EMPLOYMENT
The biggest concern I have right now is the mountain of debt that Canadians are carrying. We have more debt per capita than any other developed nation. This is something we will have to monitor moving forward.
Contrary to what some people believe, Ottawa’s prices have not been rising due to foreign buyers. Not yet anyway. Right now foreign buyers own less than 0.7% of Ottawa condos and this is the same percentage as in 2014 (according to CMHC). In Vancouver, this is as high as 7.5%.
What I am seeing is some families relocating to Ottawa from Toronto. Basically cashing out in T.O. and moving down the 401. They are attracted to Ottawa because of its relative affordability, awesome lifestyle, and its location that is close to both Montreal and Toronto. As other major markets get too expensive we may start seeing more foreign buyers choose Ottawa. We are like the Switzerland of real estate.
Prices are usually determined by the most basic economic principle of supply and demand. This past year inventory was tight and demand was solid. I have many buyers that should have been in the market in 17′ but could not find a place because of tight supply and multiple bids. They along with many other buyers will now seek to find accommodation in 2018. I think our tight supply will continue into the new year. I think we are in for another competitive market in early 2018.
Unemployment is always one of biggest indicators when it comes to real estate prices. In Ottawa, we are fortunate to have a stable workforce anchored by the public service. Income levels support our current real estate prices and would still be able to accommodate new price gains. Essentially affordability is good. Especially compared to other markets like Vancouver or Toronto.
OTTAWA REQUIRED INCOME VS ACTUAL INCOME
I sat in on a presentation by CIBC chief economist Benjamin Tal. He was asked if rates were going to rapidly increase in the upcoming few years. His response was that we won’t ever see very high rates again. We have different mechanisms and a central policy that we did not have in the 80’s/90’s when rates for homes are similar to what we are paying on credit cards.
The new mortgage rules will affect affordability for buyers. Insured mortgages will now need to be stress tested at the higher bank qualifying rate. This will reduce the average buyer’s purchasing power by about 20%. I am one of the few Realtors who actually agrees with this policy. We need to have buyers that can withstand any future increases in the mortgage rates. I think it is prudent and will help ensure that home buyers are not taking on debt that they can’t afford in the future. This protection will only help stabilize our market in the future.
OTTAWA CMA, MLS ® PRICE
This time of year is usually pretty slow. However, I am off to present an offer for one of my clients in a snowstorm. We will be competing against 6-8 others. Basically what I am getting at is the market still has no inventory in many segments. I expect this trend to continue right through the Spring market. It will put upward pressure on prices again. I had some clients purchase a home in multiple bids in Hintonburg earlier this year. They were concerned that they paid too much. Buyers remorse is inevitable when you go way over asking price. This week the exact same unit with fewer upgrades came for sale and sold for 20k more than what my clients paid just 3 months ago. It tells me that some buyers in these areas are getting desperate to find accommodations. Once again we could be embarking on another very active and robust market in 2018. With the higher prices in the central locations, this will also help condo sales. Many buyers are being priced out of the freehold market and are turning back to condos as a viable option. For me, the wildcards in the market are the new mortgage rules and how Ottawa can absorb them. I think we can but it will make it harder for buyers in the higher price points. My gut tells me that there will be negative news from Toronto and Vancouver this year on the average price front. There are so many rules and regulations now for their markets to continue their torrent pace. How does this national coverage (if it happens) affect the consumer confidence here. Again, this is just my personal opinion here. If you are curious about what’s happening in your neighbourhood feel free to get in touch. We are always happy to provide you with sales data in and around your home.
PERCENTAGE INCREASE OF OTTAWA HOUSING PRICES
* Based on RES & CON MLS Sales
If you are curious about your homes worth please fill in this form for a no-obligation market assessment.
One trend I can see gaining some traction in Ottawa real estate over the upcoming few years is coach houses. A coach house is a separate dwelling detached from the principal house that sits on the same lot. Personally, I think with the right property and location this could be a viable option for people in lieu of a basement apartment or nanny flat. Could also be perfect for being a purpose-built Airbnb rental. Let’s explore some of the regulations the city has in place for this.
Basic requirements to qualify for a Coach Houses in Ottawa:
Frequently Asked Questions:
What does one cost: typical coach house is between $200 and $300 a square foot. That would put the cost of a 500 square-foot coach house in the range of $100,000 to $150,000, It can vary from builder to builder. This is just a guideline.
This is just a synopsis of some of the guidelines for this style of purchase. For more information check with the city at www.ottawa.ca/coachhouse
If you are considering buying a home in Ottawa with the intention of building a coach house, call me to discuss. We can help you find a house that will fit in with your requirements.
The Ottawa real estate market is still pretty hot, especially considering the time of year. Many Ottawa home buyers are looking to purchase before the new mortgage rules are implemented in January. Prices are up again over last year. Our average price for a residential-class property was up 3.2% over last November, sitting at $418,354. It is the number of houses sold that is impressive. In the residential-class property segment, there were 945 units sold which is an increase of 24% over last November. In the condo market, 294 units sold which is an increase of 27.8%. With a combined total of 1239 units sold in November and an overall increase of 24.9%. The prices may not have increased much from last year’s November but the number of units sold shows how active the Ottawa real estate still is.
As always feel free to reach out if you are curious to whats happening in your neighbourhood. I am always happy to help.
Thanks everyone for participating in our client draw. It is lots of fun to put these contests and events on throughout the year. I feel blessed and grateful to have such wonderful clients to work with each year. This is a very small token of my appreciation. Hope the winners enjoy the gifts. I am sure the $500 shopping spree will come in handy this time of year.