The talk of Ottawa the past few weeks has been the cooling real estate market. I just wanted to add some perspective on this. The market is most certainly changing but the first quarter of this year was so hot that we may never see that type of inventory shortage again in our lifetime. It is just not the same offer frenzy that we were used to. Buyers are spreading their offers around on different properties. Hopefully this will lead to more balance in the market.
The market is not the same as what it was and that is ok. It is still very much a seller’s market right now. Prices have stabilized and for the most part, sellers are still trying to achieve prices that comparable houses sold for a few months ago. In some areas that is still very achievable and in other cases those numbers are now out of reach.
Where do we go from here?
Prices have certainly stabilized over the past few months. Buyers still seem to be able and willing to pay the premium prices that sellers are demanding. There are fewer offers on properties but the pricing strategy has really changed. Sellers in many cases are now pricing at the mid to high end of the market. So instead of pricing a home 100k less than what they expect they may price it 20-50k less and if on offer date they don’t get an offer they likely will increase the price to match their expectations. Some sellers are still going way under their desired price and others are pricing right at the most recent comparable. This has created a very complicated marketplace. With so many strategies out there it is important to lean on your Realtors experience to help navigate you through it.
With year-to-date average sale prices at $734,357 for residential and $422,734 for condominiums, these values represent a 33 per cent and 20 percent increase over 2020, respectively. Pretty incredible numbers really.
Every house is unique. If you want to know what’s happening in your area please feel free to reach out.
The market in Ottawa right now seems to be in transition. Homes are still selling at record prices but the upward trend in prices month over month seems to be leveling out. The first quarter of this year saw unprecedented price growth. That type of rapid appreciation can happen only over a shorter period of time. Now sellers are pricing at higher numbers to start and still hoping, and in some cases expecting buyers to bid way over the asking price. In many cases that is just not happening. Some sellers are not getting any offers on their offer date and transitioning to a more traditional offer anytime approach should they not get an offer. In some cases, they are raising their price too. List prices don’t mean much right now. If the property is priced right and is attractive to buyers then of course they can still generate many offers on the house. In general, most sellers are still getting multiple offers, but where it was 8-12 offers or more in April, now it is more like 3-5 offers.
There are also fewer viewings, but seller’s prices are also generally higher to start with. It all makes a very confusing market because there are so many strategies at play. I look forward to a time in the future where the price listed is the price the seller expects to sell for. It would make our market a whole lot easier to navigate for both buyers and sellers.
2,296 residential properties were sold in May, compared with 1,342 in May 2020, an increase of 71 per cent. May’s sales included 1,779 in the residential-property class, up 67 per cent from a year ago, and 517 in the condominium-property category, an increase of 85 per cent from May 2020. The five-year average for total unit sales in May is 2,123. This is an important number because last May we were in a stricter lockdown and the numbers are skewed.
I predict the market to remain a sellers market for the remainder of the year, however prices are leveling out and there will be more options for desperate buyers out there. Every house and neighbourhood are different.
If you ever want to know about the activity in your neighbourhood or have any questions at all, please reach out to our team.
It is hard to believe that Ottawa has had lockdowns in April of last year and this year! This of course is going to have an impact on real estate sales. We are an essential service and I have had very few clients suspend their search due to the lockdown measures. The market is red hot of course but prices seem to be all over the place depending on the strategy the sellers are using. It is like wheel of fortune out there. You can list low and win a big number on offer day. If you list over actual retail value than your house may not get offers and you will be in a weird limbo that some sellers find themselves in. Finding the sweet spot price wise while not going over or too far under is what you need to do. Think of your Realtor as Bob Barker guiding you to the right price so you can play in the showcase showdown. Pricing has never been more important. Price too high and you could actually get far less for your property. It is not a great pricing system right now in the Ottawa real estate market and I hope it gets corrected. I long for the days of having standard prices where a list price actually means something. Until that happens we need to spin the wheel and play the game.
Stats for this month, which show year over year comparisons with 2020 are very skewed due to the State of Emergency declared in April 2020. April 2021 started off strong, however ended up tapering off due to the stricter lockdown order announcement that came mid-month.
We have had 166 per cent more residential sales this April versus this time last year and the average price for a residential property has seen an increase to $743,204, a 42 per cent increase from April 2020. Condos, also seeing an increase of 154 per cent in sales and average sale prices up 30 per cent at $427,145 compared to this time last year.
To show a true comparison 2,402 residential properties were sold in April, we can look at the 5 year average for April The five-year average for total unit sales in April is 1,830. That represents a sizable increase in sales.
It has been so interesting observing market trends over the past few weeks. There are some homes going way more than what they should be selling for while other ones are not getting offers on their pre-arrange offer date. I think many sellers are starting to list at the higher end of the market but that is not necessarily the right strategy. Buyers are conditioned to pay much more than asking and if they see a price at the high end of the market they assume they would have to pay way more to secure it. Often times those houses end up selling for less than they should be. The showing experience is also becoming more and more important. The well staged and presented homes are the ones going for the crazy prices. These are the ones that are capturing buyers hearts and getting them emotionally committed to the houses and subsequent bids.
We have had 47 per cent more residential sales this March versus this time last year and the average price for a residential property has skyrocketed up to $758,802, a 35 per cent increase from March 2020. This trend is also continuing with condos, seeing an increase of 65 per cent in sales and average sale prices up 18 per cent at $437,041 compared to this time last year.
The pandemic has brought us a once in a lifetime type of real estate market. The challenge I see moving forward is the supply issue could be here with us for the foreseeable future. Our city is growing and everyone wants to have home ownership. Why would you not when you see the type of equity homeowners are building. I do think things will get a bit easier in the next few months for buyers. In the past week I have seen more townhomes come to market than at any other time in the last year. I think townhome owners are seeing the relatively small gap between what their houses would sell for and getting into a larger single home.
As always feel free to reach out to me, or any member of our team if you would like to know what your home is worth or if you are interested in recent neighbourhood activity.
The market has continued its red hot pace and is favored towards the seller. This seems to be how I am starting these write-ups over the past 13 months! Hard to believe considering we are one year into a pandemic. We have less than one months inventory available to buyers out there. To put it in perspective it is like going to the grocery store a year ago and seeing toilet paper being put on the shelves. How long did that last? If stores were setup for bidding wars I am sure they would sell those rolls for more. Not comparing toilet paper to housing, well kinda. The principals are the same. As a shopper I was legit frustrated last year because of the scarcity of the inventory. My buyers out there are feeling the same. A few have decided to rent! Eventually things will get back to a more normal market. I predict that to start taking shape by summer. It will be favored to the sellers but prices will plateau. Interest rates may see a slight uptick and that should help cool this market a bit. It will still be hot for the rest of the year but not less than one months inventory hot.
The average sale price of a residential property up 27.2 per cent to $717,914 and the average sale price of a condo up 16.6 per cent to $407,971, compared to February 2020. These numbers are unheard of over the past 50 years. The competition for properties remains fierce!
February’s sales included 1,028 in the residential-property class, up 24 per cent from a year ago, and 362 in the condominium-property category, an increase of 19 per cent from February 2020. The five-year average for total unit sales in February is 1,101.
Residential homes are experiencing the quickest turnarounds noticeable in the sharp decline of Days on Market (DOM) from 30 days in February 2020 to 14 days last month. Houses are getting snapped up quickly.
If you ever want to know what your home could sell for, or what the property down the street just sold for, please feel free to reach out to our team.
Even in the midst of a stay-at-home order and a continuation of December’s lockdown, members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 964 residential properties in January through the Board’s MLS System, compared with 778 in January 2020, an increase of 24 per cent. January’s sales included 674 in the residential-property class, up 21 percent from a year ago, and 290 in the condominium-property category, an increase of 31 per cent from January 2020. The five-year average for total unit sales in January is 786.
Sellers were waiting until after the holidays to list their properties, causing listing activity to be up at the beginning of the month. This gave way to a restricted supply once the stay-at-home order came into effect mid-month. This of course has put strain on buyers. There is so much pent-up demand.
Inventory is up from December, it is still down substantially from last year at this time with 43% fewer properties on the market. This inventory shortage coupled with strong demand triggered a brisk pace to the market. We would have certainly seen higher sales numbers if there were more properties available because the demand is definitely there.
January’s average sale price for a condominium-class property was $380,336, an increase of 13 per cent from last year, while the average sale price of a residential-class property was $677,197, an increase of 31 per cent from a year ago. Compared to December, the average price for residential-class properties has increased by 12 per cent, and the average price for condominium-class units is 7 per cent higher.
If you are curious to know what’s happening in your Ottawa neighborhood let us know. We are always happy to help.
It was a record-breaking year of growth and price appreciation in Ottawa. Coming into 2020 our supply levels were at all time lows and demand was strong. When the COVID hit supply also dropped. The demand did not. Buyers were still very much interested in purchasing. Having a stable economy in Ottawa helped matters. The pandemic even brought other people who were not thinking about buying into the fold. Privacy and pools became high priorities for some buyers.
The end result was freehold prices up 20%! The average sale price was $582,267 in this category. Who would have thought that we would have record price appreciation in the midst of a pandemic. In the condo market prices soared over 19%! It would have been hard to predict these numbers before the start of the year. Even with the lack of inventory the number of units sold were way up too.
This thriving market is due to inventory shortage, multiple offer situations, record-low mortgage rates and buyers from larger markets. Ottawa is a resilient and sheltered market in comparison to others. Ottawa has secure government and tech sector employment that allowed many to work from home. 2021 will see a continuation of Ottawa’s solid resale market, real estate professionals were deemed essential workers and the market was only slightly shaken by the world-wide pandemic. This market is very active, insulated, and strong.
Average sales prices are for 2020 based on MLS sales.
Combined is for all property classes. Arrows are gains from 2019.
OTTAWA REAL ESTATE REPORT
FORECAST 2021
We are entering the year in the midst of rising COVID cases and economic uncertainty. Not to mention some political unrest with our neighbours to the South. This is a unique place to begin. From a real estate market perspective, I look at the supply and demand metrics to determine where things may be going. We enter this year with very few homes for sale, the sales being recorded so far are noticeably higher than last year. Our supply is exceptionally low and demand still quite high. This will once again make Ottawa a very competitive market for 2021.
Ottawa is a growing city, and I am not sure there is a long-term solution to this price acceleration. Rising prices may be a common theme for the foreseeable future. The biggest change I see in the years to come is in the luxury market. There are many more 1M plus buyers out there now.
Half a million can barely afford you a townhouse now in suburbia. It is kind of surreal thinking about my average sale price in my first year in real estate. It was around $220,000.
I do predict that freehold prices will continue to appreciate at a higher level than condos. Many major projects in Ottawa are in the building stages with dozens more approved. At some point we will have enough condos to satisfy demand. That will come sooner than on the freehold side. Some condo owners have felt a bit trapped with COVID and working from home. I have had a few reach out to change into a freehold and have a bit more space to spread out.
OTTAWA REAL ESTATE REPORT
KEY INDICATORS
WORKING FROM HOME: THE NEW NORMAL
Ottawa’s solid public sector is a great foundational piece to our economy. This represents 20% of the workforce in Ottawa. These jobs are high earnings and are very secure. Ottawa is in a unique position to have so many jobs that can be done remotely. The high-tech sector in Ottawa has been booming, tech-giant Shopify has made working from home permanent for their employees. This has kept our local economy sheltered from what is happening elsewhere. It may also have an impact on where people decide to live. With many working from home permanently extra space is becoming more desirable.
SUPPLY TRENDS LOWER FOR FREEHOLDS & CONDO
This graph illustrates the supply available in the Ottawa real estate market. It is so interesting to see where we are from an inventory perspective when compared to the last 15 years. Supply remained low for 2020, and we are starting out 2021 with very little inventory. This is the heartbeat of the market. As we witnessed in 2020 with inventory this low, prices were pushed way up as buyer competed for homes. Early 2021 seems to be trending in that direction as well. Will be an interesting year!
INCREASED USE OF TECHNOLOGY
I think that the way people buy and sell real estate will forever be impacted by COVID. This year has proven that we can do so much virtually. Our team has sold 10 homes to buyers from out of town (mostly military) who never actually stepped foot in the house they purchased until closing day. We would virtually walk them through the house and usually have a 3D tour to share with them. I am not suggesting everyone would have a comfort level with that. However, if you could have me walk you through a house while you are in the comfort of your own home, would that be beneficial? Some buyers are opting for this for the first visit and then coming through if they like what they saw on the virtual visit.
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This is the time of year that we usually see a pretty big slowdown in our real estate market. The recent statistics from the Ottawa real estate board suggest that will not be the case this year. The demand is still extremely high for Ottawa real estate. There are so many buyers who are still out there waiting for the right property to become available. These buyers are starting to see more options.
New listings were up by 400 when compared with November of last year. This is 3-4 months of more inventory when compared with last year. A continuation of this trend may lead to a more balanced market in the 2nd quarter of next year. The prices will stabilize as a result. It has been an amazing run in that department. Prices are up over 20% in the residential class segment with Ottawa prices averaging $602,892 in 2020. Ottawa condos are up 19%. The trajectory of this market is a direct result of the severely depleted housing inventory we experienced in the first half of the year.
There has been an influx in the condo market listings as of late. We have 25% more listing in that segment available right now when compared with November of last year. This is leading to more time on the market for condo sellers. This is an interesting trend to watch.
If you have any questions about what’s happening in your neighborhood feel free to reach out!
It has been a very interesting fall market so far. The number of new listings coming to market continues to increase each month. Interestingly the demand is so high that our market is absorbing these new listings quite nicely. However, each month I am feeling the showing activity and offer activity on listings drop. If this increase in listings continues it could start pushing us back to more balanced conditions by late first quarter next year. It will be interesting to watch.
There were 1,937 residential listings and 708 condo units added to the housing stock in October, this is a 48% and 70% respective increase in new listings over last year at this time. I think we need to watch that 70% number on the condo side. The new listings are not absorbing as quickly as the residential class property.
Ottawa realtors sold 2,146 residential properties in October through the MLS System, compared with 1,604 in October 2019, a year over year increase of 34 per cent. October’s sales included 1,665 in the residential property class, up 38 per cent from a year ago, and 481 in the condominium property category, an increase of 22 per cent from October 2019. The five-year average for October unit sales is 1,515. This is a big October by Ottawa standards, especially considering we are in the middle of a pandemic!
The Ottawa market is expected to hold steady even going into what are historically slower winter months. If you want to know what’s happening in your neighbourhood, please get in touch.
September has shown us that the market trajectory is continuing upwards. There continues to be an increase in new listings and demand is remaining strong. September saw 400 more new listings than in August. These new listings were easily absorbed in our market. As I mentioned last month, if these new listings continue it may push Ottawa back to a more balanced market. I am already seeing some properties receive less offers than just two months ago. It will be an interesting few months coming up. With COVID cases rising will it finally be enough to slow down this market? That is yet to be determined. For now Ottawa remains very much in a sellers market.
Ottawa Realtors sold 2,329 residential properties in September through the MLS System, compared with 1,547 in September 2019, a year over year increase of 51 per cent. September’s sales included 1,759 in the residential-property class, up 58 per cent from a year ago, and 570 in the condominium-property category, an increase of 31 per cent from September 2019. The five-year average for September unit sales is 1,602.
Average prices in September have hit an all-time high, with the most movement at the higher end of the market which is driving the average price upwards in this section of the market. If you would like to know what is happening in your area, please get in touch.
